총리 이낙연이 아프리카 케냐에서 “(북한에) 여러 변화가 있겠지만 가장 중요하게 생각하는 것은 백성의 생활을 다른 것보다 더 중요하게 생각하는 지도자가 마침내 출현한 것"이라고 말했다고 한다.  폭주하는 치매 정권의 성격을 보여주는 발언이 아닐 수 없다.


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북한의 석탄이 우리나라에 버젓이 수입되었다는 사실이 폭로되었고, 미국은 이에 대해 제재를 하겠다고 선언했다.  제재에도 불구하고 북한에서 석유값이 오히려 떨어지고 있다는 뉴스도 이미 오래전에 들어왔다. 지금 북한에는 중국과 러시아 그리고 거기에 한국이 뒷구멍으로 무엇인가를 대주고 있다. 중국은 미국과 상대를 하려면 아무래도 북한이라는 똘만이가 당분간은 더 필요하다고 판단한 듯하다. 그리고 러시아 역시 미국이 손해보는 일은 러시아가 이익이라는 강박에 사로잡혀 중국과 손을 잡고 반미 전선을 취하고 있다. 그런데 여기에 한국까지 끼어들어 바보 짓을 하고 있다.
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김병준
"시장은 규제에 묶여 있고 국가는 대중영합주의 속에 일부 국민 주머니에 돈 넣어주는 복지에만 집중하면서 재정적 한계를 드러내고 있다"
김병준 교수는 처음 좌파 정권에서 발탁된 인물이고, 또 좌파적 성향을 지닌 인물이지만, 현재의 문제점을 비교적 요약해서 잘 지적하고 있다.


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이산화탄소 수준을 두 배로 했을 때, 식물에 긍정적인 효과가 나타난다는 논문
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우리를 찌르고 상처 입히는 책만을 읽어야 한다. 책은 우리 내면의 얼어붙은 바다를 깨는 도끼이어야 한다. --- 카프카
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기술이 아닌 저축이 경제 성장의 열쇠이다.

사람들이 아무리 많은 아이디어를 갖고 있다 해도, 실질 저축이 없다면 그것들을 실행해볼 기회가 없다.

기술이 중요하긴 해도, 경제 성장을 이루어내려면 반드시 자본의 투자를 통해 실현되어야 한다.

자원의 잘못된 투자를 유도하는 가장 큰 요인은 중앙은행의 방만한 화폐 정책에 의한 가격 시그널들이 왜곡이다.

만일 중앙은행이 경기를 살리기 위해 방만한 금융 정책을 강화한다면, 그것은 실질 저축을 위축하게 만들어 사태를 악화시킬 뿐이다.

 

Savings, not Technology, Is the Key to Economic Growth

 

•Frank Shostak

 

 

Most economic commentators are likely to agree that in relation to the period prior to the Great Depression, the present world is many times more sophisticated in terms of advanced technological knowledge. It is then tempted to suggest that with the present advanced technology we are in a position to generate enough real wealth to prevent a severe economic slump.

 

On this way of thinking, ideas are not themselves scarce unlike material inputs. Consequently, new ideas for more efficient processes and new products can make continuous growth possible.

 

It follows then that because of the limited amounts of capital and labor, without the technological progress the opportunities for growth will eventually run out.

 

One could have argued along similar lines about the period prior to the Great Depression, i.e. prior to the 1929, when comparing it with the end of the nineteenth century. During the first 30 years of the twentieth century, important technological breakthroughs occurred, and individuals’ wellbeing had risen significantly in the western world. Yet despite all the sophistication, the world still experienced the Great Depression. A severe economic slump took place in spite of technological progress.

 

This is because regardless of how many ideas people have, what always limits the implementation of various new ideas is the availability of real savings.

 

Real Savings the Key for Economic Growth

 

While new ideas can result in a better use of scarce resources, they can however, do very little for real economic growth without the expanding pool of real savings.

 

In his Man Economy and State, Murray Rothbard says, that technology, while important, must always work through the investment of capital in order to generate economic growth. On this issue Rothbard quotes Mises who says,

 

 

What is lacking in (underdeveloped counties) is not knowledge of Western technological methods (“know how”); that is learned easily enough. The service of imparting knowledge, in person or in book form, can be paid for readily. What is lacking is the supply of saved capital needed to put the advanced methods into effect.

 

So regardless of how knowledgeable we are and regardless of various technological ideas, without an expanding pool of real savings no expansion in economic growth is going to emerge.

 

It is through the expansion in the pool of real savings that an increase in the stock of capital goods is possible. The increase in the capital goods once correctly allocated permits the increase in economic growth to emerge.

 

Loose monetary policy is the key behind the boom-bust cycles

 

One observes that during an economic downturn highly sophisticated businesses also fail despite sophisticated technology being employed. Careful analysis would reveal that the root of the problem is not the lack of sophisticated technology but rather the wrong employment of resources by the businesses.

 

Employment of resources contrary to the approval of consumers leads to what we commonly call a loss. One of the major factors contributing to a misdirection of resources is the falsification of price signals by means of loose monetary policies of the central bank.

 

The persistent falsification of price signals leads over time to a production structure that might be very sophisticated nevertheless in defiance of the wishes of consumers.

 

Consequently, regardless of the degree of sophistication, once the process of adjustment towards the structure that is in line with consumers top priorities begins, various unwanted sophisticated structures begin to crumble.

 

As a rule, a tighter monetary stance of the central bank sets this process of adjustment. The liquidation of unwanted structures is what recession or depression is all about.

 

Why the Best Policy to Help the Economy During a Recession is To Do “Nothing”

 

Contrary to popular thinking, the so-called strength of the economy as depicted by various economic data cannot counter the process of adjustment once it was set in motion by a tighter stance of the central bank.

 

If the central bank were to pursue an ever-aggressive loose monetary stance rather than reversing the loose stance, at some point in time the pool of real savings will start declining.

 

Consequently, the so-called economy will follow suit. If the central bank were to intensify its loose monetary policy further to “revive the economy” this will only weaken the pool of real savings further and make things much worse.

 

Both Mises and Rothbard advocated that the best policy once an economy falls into a recession is for the central bank and the government to do nothing.

 

The reduction in tampering with the economy leaves more real savings with businesses. This enables them to set in motion the process of real wealth accumulation. This in turn makes it much easier to absorb various misallocated activities.

 

The State of the Pool of Real Savings Sets the Underlying Growth Trend of the Economy

 

We can envisage the so-called normal business cycle as a situation wherein the economy follows a rising growth trend with cyclical swings oscillating around the growth trend.

 

In fact, a declining pool of real savings places the economy on a declining growth trend. While an expanding pool of real savings sets the economy on a rising growth trend.

 

A declining growth trend coupled with a cyclical decline is associated with the state of a severe economic slump often labeled as economic depression.

 

Note that a cyclical downturn tends to be more severe during a declining growth trend versus the situation when the growth trend is rising.

 

During a rising growth trend, because of an expanding pool of real savings it is much easier to absorb various misallocated activities, which come under pressure due to a tighter monetary stance of the central bank.

 

Money Out of “Thin Air” and Economic Embezzlement

 

As we have mentioned above the key reason for boom-bust cycles is the loose monetary stance of the central bank. This loose stance results in the expansion of money out of “thin air”, which sets in motion an exchange of nothing for something.

 

On a pure gold standard, an increase in the supply of gold does not set in motion an exchange of nothing for something i.e. an act of embezzlement, but to an exchange of something for something. (One form of real wealth is exchanged for another form of real wealth).

 

In the absence of an exchange of nothing for something, there is a very low likelihood of a persistent misallocation of resources, which culminates in boom-bust cycles.

 

Note that the expansion of money out of “thin air” through the setting of an exchange of nothing for something falsifies the price signals and thus leads to the misallocation of resources.

 

The early receivers of newly generated money set the demand for various goods that prior to the expansion of money were not demanded. Once the easy stance of the central bank is reversed and the expansion in the money out of “thin air” slows down or comes to a halt the demand for these goods slows down or stops altogether – an economic bust emerges.

 

Obviously, in a free unhampered market we will also have a misallocation of resources as a result of business errors; however, the incurring losses would prevent the misallocations to become of long lasting nature.

 

In addition, the misallocation of resources or the errors committed by businesses are not going to be widely spread, as is the case with the misallocation caused by the loose monetary policies of the central bank. The errors committed by business are of a local nature related to how well businesses are managed.

 

When the central bank and government policies set the misallocation of resources in motion these distortions tend to be long lasting since neither the government nor the central bank operate in the profit and loss framework. Also, these policies exert their impact on the economy as a whole and not confined to a particular company or a sector.

 

Conclusion

 

Despite new technologies, a major impediment to economic growth has been the relentless central bank tampering with financial markets. Since 2008, this tampering made manifest in the extremely loose monetary policy of the Fed that resulted in the massive monetary expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the lowering of interest rates to almost nil. These policies have been likely responsible for a severe erosion of the pool of real savings and thus to a weakening of the process of real wealth formation. This in turn poses a high risk of the US economy falling into a severe economic slump notwithstanding new information technology.

 

 

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해난사고에 대한 무지(無知)에서 나온 세월호 국가배상 판결

검찰·경찰·판사 모두 탁상공론이나 상상만으로 업무를 판단하고 집행했을 가능성

문무대왕(회원)


한 마디로 탈레브가 말한 스킨 인 더 게임(skin in the game)이 없는 관료들, 문관들의 짓거리다. 조선을 망하게 한 관료들이 다시 한국의 조정석에 앉아 있다.
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김문수


자유한국당을 노무현 정신의 정당으로 혁신하는 것에 대해, 저는 아무리 생각해 봐도 받아들일 수 없습니다. 저는 노무현 대통령의 집권을 반대했고, 노무현 대통령의 정신과 이념, 정책에 대해 반대합니다.
 
  김병준 자유한국당 혁신비상대책위원장에게 묻습니다. 우리 당을 노무현 정신을 따르는 참다운 노무현 정당으로 혁신하는 것이 김병준 혁신위원장의 목표입니까? 꼭 답해 주시기 바랍니다.
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