2018년 8월 31일 금요일

닐 퍼거슨의 경제사 책보다는, 미국과 중국의 세계사적인 대결이 어떻게 진행되고 끝날지가 더 중요하다. 지금의 미중 무역 전쟁에는 한국의 운명도 포함되어 있다. 
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로마의 판테온 돔은 수리하지 않고 2천년을 버틴 건축물이다. 여기에는 엄청난 수학이 응용되었을 것 같지만, 탈레브는 현대적 의미의 수학은 없었고, 단지 전승되어 온 건축술이 이용되었을 뿐이라고 말한다.
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가격 제도와 싸우는 영국 정부
2차대전 이후 영국은 노동당 정부가 집권해서 사회주의적 정책을 펼쳤다. 어쩌면 지금의 한국과 유사한 상황이다.
당시 정부는 자유 시장에 개입해 통제를 시작했는데, 해즐릿은 이를 비판하며, 자유롭게 가격이 형성되면, 정부의 우려와 달리 시장이 알아서 수천 가지의 상품과 서비스의 생산을 자동으로 배분하게 될 거라고 주장하고 있다.

England vs. the Price System
 
Henry Hazlitt
[This article was written from London and published in Newsweek, June 2, 1947.]
 
England's major economic troubles today seem not so much the result of its war losses, appalling as these were, as of its postwar policies. Temporary impoverishment was inevitable, but the postwar series of special crises in coal, food, and dollars was not.
 
The underlying assumption beneath the present strangling network of economic controls is that a free market and price system is at best a fair-weather system, a luxury a country can afford only when it is already well off. It is the precise function of free prices, however, to allocate production among thousands of different commodities and services and to relieve the most serious shortages most quickly by providing the greatest profit and wage incentives precisely where those shortages exist.
 
A free price system last fall would certainly have signaled the impending shortage of coal long before the Labour government was awake to its existence. It would have encouraged imports of coal from America then, instead of waiting until now. It would have enabled higher wages or bonuses to be paid for increased production. It would have attracted more men to mining. If the miners had been free to spend their money for things they really wanted, higher money wages would have meant higher real production incentives.
 
On May 7, Emanuel Shinwell, the minister of fuel and power, indiscreetly declared before a meeting of union delegates that "the organized workers of the country are our friends; as for the rest they don't matter a tinker's cuss."
 
This statement, which has since become a source of great embarrassment to the Labour Party, does supply a key to the real nature and animus of recent British planning. The essentially collectivist and egalitarian philosophy behind it begins to emerge more clearly. A ceiling has been put on imports and particularly on the purchase of so-called luxuries because "dollars are short" and "we cannot afford it." But who are "we"? Certainly not the individual who wishes to buy.
 
The real principle applied here is "If I can't afford to buy it, you shan't be allowed to buy it. If organized labor cannot have it nobody shall have it." This is most clearly illustrated in food. The overall food supply is not nearly as bad as is commonly supposed. Though it lacks interest and variety, the minister of food estimates in terms of calories it is only 6 percent below the prewar level. But analysis of its distribution is instructive. In April, wage rates in Britain were 68 percent above their 1939 level. Weekly wages were about 80 percent higher. The cost of living index, however, has gone up only 31 percent. Food considered separately had risen only 22 percent. This means that the average British worker is considerably better off in terms of goods than he was before the war.
 
One can say that this is a very good thing, but one cannot argue at the same time that production is low because nutrition is low (the coal miner in particular gets a much higher than average allotment) and one cannot call it austerity. Austerity is not being imposed on the British nation as a whole; it is being imposed through heavy taxes on the British middle and upper classes to subsidize the British working class.
 
Food prices are being subsidized to the extent of $1,572,000,000 a year in spite of the fact that the British worker is spending a much smaller percentage of his income for the same amount of food than he did before the war. It is the middle and upper classes who have now been reduced to something approaching the workingman's diet.
 
Insofar as austerity has been imposed on the whole British people, it consists in refusing to permit either consumers or producers freedom of choice. The consumer is not free to spend his money on things he himself wants but only on things government officials think are good for him. The producer is not free to make what he wishes but only what government officials think is good for the country.
 
The whole system of priorities, allocations, quotas, and licenses causes endless delays, keeps efficient concerns from expanding, and keeps inefficient concerns in business. Production is lost all around not merely because an army of men is created to issue orders rather than produce, but because producers themselves must spend so much of their time trying to get licenses and allocations instead of finding out how to reduce costs and prices and make the goods consumers really want.
 
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 중앙은행은 다수를 희생시키면서 소수에게 부()를 몰아주고 있다.
중앙은행은 무엇보다 정부의 금고를 채우기 위해 설립되었다. 중앙은행은 통치자나 통치 계급이 대중을 대규모로 약탈할 수 있도록 해주는 기관이다.
화폐 발행권을 독점한 중앙은행은 이로써 상품 즉 자연 화폐를 법정 화폐로 대체할 수 있게 되었다.
법정 화폐는 시간이 흐르면 구매력을 잃으므로, 성격상 인플레션을 유발한다. 법정 화폐가 발행되면 인위적인 호경기를 만들지만 결국은 불황으로 끝나고 만다. 또 법정 화폐는 소비자, 기업, 정부가 부채를 짊어지도록 한다.
화폐의 양이 시장에서 증가하면, 다양한 상품의 가격은 각기 다른 시점에서 각기 다른 정도로 영향을 받는다. 그로 인해 사람들의 상대적인 소득과 부의 지위는 영향을 받는다.
한 마디로 새로 발행된 화폐의 초기 수령자들은 부자가 되고, 후기 수령자들은 가난해지는 일이 벌어진다.
시장에서 법정 화폐의 양이 증가하면 소비자 상품의 가격이 상승한다. 또 그것은 증권, 부동산, 주택가격 등의 자산 가격을 끌어올린다. 따라서 가격이 상승하는 자산을 지니고 있는 사람들은 절로 인플레에 따라 혜택을 보게 된다.
법정 화폐는 부의 불평등을 더욱 심화하고 부익부 빈익빈을 더욱 악화하므로, 사회적으로 정의롭지 못하다.
 
Central Banks Enrich a Select Few at the Expense of Many
 
Thorsten Polleit
 
The message unanimously churned out by politicians, central bankers, and ‘mainstream’ economists is that central banks are there for the ‘greater good’. They provide the economy with sufficient money and credit, and they fight inflation, thereby supporting output and employment growth. What is more, central banks are supposedly in a position to effectively fend off or at least mitigate financial and economic crises. However, unfortunately, nothing could be further from the truth.
Throughout history, central banks have been created, first and foremost, to fill governments' coffers. To increase the king's or elected government's financial means through an inflationary scheme usually too elaborate and too treacherous for most people to see through. Central banks are instrumental for putting the ruler or the ruling class into a position where they can plunder the people on a grand scale and, by way of redistributing the loot, making a growing number of people financially and socially dependent on it.
 
To that end, central banks have been assigned the monopoly of money production. This has made it possible to replace commodities, or "natural money" with unbacked paper or fiat money. Central banks provide commercial banks with fiat central bank money, and commercial banks are free to pyramid a multiple of fiat commercial bank money on top of it. This is what monetary experts typically call a “fractional reserve banking system,” which is a genuinely inflationary scheme.
 
Murray N. Rothbard even speaks of a cartel between the central bank and commercial banks. In practice, the central bank acts as a cartelizing agent: "to cartelize the private commercial banks, and to help them inflate money and credit together, pumping in reserves to the banks, and bailing them out if they get into trouble." The fiat money cartel, formed between the central bank and commercial banks, has far-reaching economic and social-political consequences.
 
For instance, fiat money is inflationary in the sense that it loses its purchasing power over time; it cannot, and does not, serve as a much-needed store of value for savers. Also, the issue of fiat money sets into motion an artificial upswing (boom), which, however, must sooner or later flip to a downswing (bust). What is more, fiat money makes consumers, firms, and governments run into ever higher amounts of debt, pushing them towards a situation of over-indebtedness.
There is an additional severe problem with central banks’ fiat money: It affects income and wealth distribution, and it does so in a non-merit-based, anti-free market way. To understand this, we have to consider that if and when the quantity of money increases in an economy, the prices of different goods will be affected at different points in time and to a different degree. In other words: A rise in the quantity of money changes - and necessarily so - peoples' relative income and wealth position.
 
The early receivers of the new money will be the beneficiaries, for they can purchase goods at still unchanged prices with their fresh money. As the new money is passed from hand to hand, prices are rising. The late receivers are put at a disadvantage: They can purchase only goods at elevated prices with their new money. In other words: The early receivers of the new money get rich(er), the late receivers get poor(er). Needless to say, those who do not receive any of the new money will be worst off.
 
In the crisis 2008/2009, for instance, it was the banking and finance industry (“Wall Street”) that was bailed out in the first place. Central banks printed up new money balances, injected them into banks’ balance sheets and offered them generously with extremely low refinancing costs. In the US, for instance, the balance sheet of the banking cartel is now way bigger than it was before the outbreak of the crisis. The banking cartel has weathered the crisis pretty well it has helped to bring about by issuing fiat money in the first place.
 
It is misleading to think a rise in the quantity of money would be “neutral” in the sense that it would leave peoples’ income and wealth position unchanged. In today’s fiat money regime, the relentless increase in the fiat money supply provided by the banking cartel does not only drive up consumer goods prices. It also pushes up asset prices such as stock, real estate, and housing prices. The holders of assets whose value goes up due to inflation benefit, those holding money balances lose out: The latter’s purchasing power is diminished.
 
It is difficult to pin down exactly who is a net-winner, and who is a net-loser of the banking cartel's inflationary scheme. As a rule, however, fiat money holders bear the brunt especially if central banks push interest rates to negative levels in inflation-adjusted terms; the income of wage earners falls behind the income of those owning assets whose prices inflate. Those getting bank credit are among the first receivers of the newly created money and thus benefit while those who don't get bank credit are on the losing end.
 
Those taking side with the “deep state”, which is financed by vast amounts of credit provided by the banking cartel on favorable terms, enjoy secure employment and comfortable pension packages. Firms get profitable business from government orders. In particular, the commercial and investment banking industry, with its privileged access to central bank credit pockets enormous profits and pays downright obscene staff compensations.
 
It would be a mistake to argue that the banking cartel's fiat money scheme works for the greater good. It benefits some typically the few at the expense of others typically the many. So it does not come as a surprise that a growing number of people have raised the question: Does the banking cartel make inequality worse? Of course, inequality of income and wealth has many reasons, and as long as people are unequal in terms of inventiveness, industriousness, talent, and perseverance, income and wealth will be unequally distributed.
 
However, sound economic reasoning reveals that the banking cartel contributes to income and wealth inequality, even to a growing gap between the net-winners and net-losers of the fiat money scheme. This kind of inequality cannot be convincingly justified by economic or ethical considerations for it is the direct outcome of the state monopolizing the production of money, and special interest groups taking advantage of the state’s money production monopoly to serve their purpose(s).
 
Public resistance against the wheelings and dealings of the banking cartel has been held in check so far, presumably because people have been enjoying a rise in real incomes over the past decades. What they do not see is the counterfactual: The banking cartel has kept most peoples’ income and wealth below potential; they could be better off, but the banking cartel has been preventing it. This statement opens the door for a counter-argument: Without the banking cartel and its fiat money scheme, there would have been no economic growth at all .
 
This, however, represents one of the perhaps most noteworthy errors in ‘mainstream' monetary theory. To explain, money the ultimate means of payment is useful only for its exchange value. A rise in its quantity does not confer any social benefit; the economy is not better off if the quantity of money increases. As pointed out earlier, an increase of the money supply only benefits some at the expense of others. It is a means to slyly strip the uninformed of their resources, shovelling them into the coffers of the informed.
 
One question remains: Does a rise in the quantity of money not induce additional economic activity? This question implies a proposition that has no basis in sound economic theory. It is a seductive promise at best. For it can be logically argued that there is, and can be, no constant relation between external factors (such as a change in the quantity of money) and human action (such as, for instance, inventing, investing, or producing); the hypothesis “increasing the quantity of money induces growth” is thus logically unsustainable.
 
So, unfortunately, this article ends with a bitter insight: Sound economic reasoning will come to the conclusion that the fiat money scheme represented and upheld by the banking cartel contributes, and necessarily so, to income and wealth inequality within society. It is one source of widening the gap between the rich and the poor. By all standards, fiat money must be considered socially unjust. The same applies to the collusion between central banks and private banks.
 
So what is to be done? The solution is straightforward: Establish a free market in money, shut down central banks, dismantle the banking cartel. As Murray Rothbard says: “[A]bolish the Federal Reserve System, and return to the gold standard, to a monetary system where a market-produced metal, such as gold, serves as the standard money, and not paper tickets printed by the Federal Reserve.” Perhaps the debate about growing inequality helps to rehabilitate our money system something economic insights have failed to achieve so far.
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2018년 8월 30일 목요일


영국 노동당 당수인 코빈은 소련의 붕괴를 아쉬워했다. 정상적인 시기라면, 그의 이런 생각만으로도 정부의 고위직에서 제외되었을 것이다.

----> 문죄인은 베트남이 적화된 역사를 읽고 희열을 느꼈다. 그리고 그는 철저한 좌파 신영복을 사상가(?)로서 존경했고, 그의 머리 속에는 북한을 도와줄 생각만으로 가득 차 있다. 정상적인 시기라면, 그의 이런 전력(前歷)만으로도 대통령직 도전에서 제외되었어야 한다.
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김문수
 내년 예산은 '김정은 예산'이라는 생각을 떨칠 수 없습니다. 올해보다 총예산 규모가 9.7%나 늘어나, 470조가 넘는 거대 예산입니다. 모든 부처, 모든 분야 예산규모가 다 늘어났습니다. 늘어난 예산 쓰느라, 공무원들이 신바람 나겠습니다.
  
  그런데 유독 북한인권재단 예산은 92.6% 삭감했습니다. 북한인권정보시스템 예산도 70.7% 깎았습니다. 탈북자 정착금 31.6% 줄였습니다. '북한인권'이라면 입에 거품을 물며, 반대하는 집단이 북한에는 김정은이고, 남한에는 주사파들입니다.
  
  문재인 정부는 주사파가 장악했습니다. 내년 예산편성에도 김정은의 입김이 이렇게 노골적으로 작용할 줄은 몰랐습니다. 김정은의 나라로 붉게 통일되어 가는 한반도가 슬픕니다.


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레플리케이션 위기(논문의 내용에 따라 실험했을 때, 논문과는 다른 결과가 도출되는 사건들)는 하버드 대학 따위의 지식인들이, 점성술사인 브레 여사와 별 다름이 없다는 사실을 보여준다.
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석박사 논문에서 과학적 근거로 제시되는 p 밸류가 거의 과학적 가치가 없다는 사실이 드러나고 있다.
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소위 "사회과학"이나 "증거 기반"이라 불리던 것들이, 사실은 헛소리라는 사실이 과학적으로 증명되었다. 
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문어의 놀라운 능력
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경제의 겨울이 다가오고 있다
 
연준의 버냉키는 당시 왜 그렇게 무지했고, 오늘날의 주류 경제학자들은 왜 또 그와 같이 오류를 저지르는가? 해답은 그들이 알고 있는 경기 순환론이 잘못되었다는 것이다.
통화 공급이 인위적으로 증가되면 금리는 내려간다. 그런데 금리는 모든 기업과 경제 주체, 투자와 매입 등에서 보편적인 시장 지표이다. 금리가 내려감에 따라 이전에는 수익성이 없어 보이던 것들이 이제는 경제적으로 수익성이 좋아 보인다. 그래서 개인과 기업들은 투자에 나서는데, 정상적인 금리를 적용한다면 이는 잘못된 투자들이다. 그러다 금리가 다시 올라 이전의 상태로 돌아가면, 잘못된 투자들이 수익을 내지 못하면서 불황에 빠지게 된다.
일반적으로 단기 금리가 장기 금리보다 높을 때, 불황이 일어난다.
2008년 이후로 연준이 양적 완화라는 이름으로 시장에 돈을 푼 일을 감안한다면, 다가오는 불황은 지난 불황보다 더욱 심할 것이다.
 
The Economy: Winter Is Coming
 
Christopher P. Casey
 
Fans of HBO’s hit series, Game of Thrones, know well the motto of House Stark: “Winter is Coming.” This motto warns of impending doom, whether brought on by the Starks themselves, devastating multi-year, cold weather, or something far more ominous north of the Wall.
 
At least since Soviet economist Nikolai Kondratieff wrote The Major Economic Cycles in 1925, recessions have been associated with winter weather. Although Kondratieff’s theories contained as much fantasy as Game of Thrones, using seasons as an analogy for the stages of a business cycle is intuitive. If spring represents recovery, and summer the peak of economic growth, then the U.S. economy may well be in autumn. All should be as wary as the subjects of Westeros (the realm of focus in Game of Thrones).
 
Why Winter is Coming
 
Few mainstream economists currently foresee a recession. They cite “strong” (a new-found, favorite term in Federal Open Market Committee minutes) economic statistics, a “healthy” stock market (despite gains highly concentrated in the so-called “FANG” stocks), and few warning signs among the “leading indicators." But the same exact sentiment existed before the last recession. Most infamously, then-Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke stated in January 2008 exactly one month after the recession technically began: “the Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
 
How could Chairman Bernanke have been so wrong then, and why may mainstream economists be likewise wrong today? The answer lies in their erroneous business cycle theories. Without a theory which accurately describes recessions, watching leading indicators or other signs of a slowdown are as effective as reading tea leaves. One can only predict by first understanding causality.
 
The Austrian school of economics explains business cycles, for it describes their phenomena (e.g., the “cluster of error” exhibited by businesses and economic actors), why they are recurring, and why they first repeatedly appeared in the 19th century (with fractional-reserve banking and/or central banks). In short, when the money supply is artificially increased, interest rates are decreased and distorted. As interest rates are a universal market signal to all businesses and economic actors, investments and purchases which previously appeared unprofitable or untenable now seem economically profitable or reasonable. However, these expenditures are actually “malinvested” relative to the natural level of interest rates. When interest rates revert to their natural level and structure, a recession ensues. Recessions are an inevitable condition which corrects malinvestments by returning capital to rightful purpose.
 
What causes the artificial boom to end and the winter to begin? Ludwig von Mises offered a succinct explanation:
 
The boom can last only as long as the credit expansion progresses at an ever-accelerated pace. The boom comes to an end as soon as additional quantities of fiduciary media are no longer thrown upon the loan market.
 
In the U.S., the growth rate of “additional quantities of fiduciary media” has flatlined (as represented by the red line below). The most relevant monetary metric to analyze is the Austrian definition of the money supply known as “True Money Supply” (“TMS”). Developed by Murray Rothbard and Joseph Salerno (and frequently commented upon by Ryan McMaken of the Mises Institute), TMS more accurately captures Federal Reserve activity than traditional measures such as M2. Since March 2017, it has averaged a mere expansion rate of just over 4%.
 
Since Austrian business cycle theory describes the impact of monetary expansion and contraction upon interest rates which, in turn, impacts the economy, are interest rates likewise signaling a possible end to the current, artificial economic expansion?
 
When Winter is Coming
 
Interest rates have certainly risen. Since breaking below 1.4% just over two years ago, the 10-year Treasury has traded with a yield close to 3.0% for the majority of 2018. But in forecasting a recession, timing and probability are better served by analyzing the structure of interest rates (known as the yield curve) rather than the overall interest rate level.
 
The yield curve represents a graphical depiction of fixed-interest rate security yields plotted against the amount of time until their maturity. Various methods of measuring the “flatness” of the yield curve exist, but one of the most popular is the yield on a long-dated bond (e.g., the 10-year Treasury) minus the yield on a shorter-term bond (e.g., the 2-year Treasury). Based on this methodology, the yield curve has flattened extensively over the last several years to levels last observed just prior to the Great Recession.
 
Historically, a yield curve which flattens enough to become inverted; that is, when short-term interest rates are higher than longer-term interest rates, a recession typically follows. An inverted yield curve possesses a unique power of predictability.
 
As explained by economist Robert Murphy, in foreshadowing every recession since 1950:
 
Not only has there only been one false positive (which even here was still associated with a slowdown), but every actual recession in this timeframe has had an inverted (or nearly inverted) yield curve precede it. In other words, there are no false negatives either when it comes to the yield curve’s predictive powers in the postwar period.
 
The acknowledgement of the yield curve’s prognosticative capability extends beyond Austrian school economists such as Dr. Murphy, for numerous studies many by Federal Reserve economists cite this phenomenon. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in introducing some of this research, recognizes “the empirical regularity that the slope of the yield curve is a reliable predictor of future real economic activity.”
 
Recognition is different from understanding as mainstream economists are largely unable to offer an explanation. However, yield curve recession signals adhere well to Austrian business cycle theory which demonstrates the importance of banks in creating money and lowering interest rates (which steepens the yield curve as most of their influence resides with shorter maturities). It is the reversal of money creation and the impact of banks on interest rates which causes shorter-term interest rates to rise disproportionately (the typical fashion by which the yield curve flattens).
 
In addition, if the artificial boom ends when interest rates are no longer artificially depressed, then it stands to reason the structure of interest rates will also revert to its natural state. A flatter yield curve comports with the natural structure of interest rates expected in a free market. The Austrian-economist Jesús Huerta de Soto described the underlying reason free markets generate flatter yield curves:
 
. . . the market rate of interest tends to be the same throughout the entire time market or productive structure in society, not only intratemporally, i.e., in different areas of the market, but also intertemporally . . . the entrepreneurial force itself, drive by a desire for profit, will lead people to disinvest in stages in which the interest rate . . . is lower, relatively speaking, and to invest in stages in which the expected interest rate . . . is higher.
 
In short, the predictive power of the yield curve is matched only by the explanatory power of Austrian business cycle theory. If it continues to flatten and invert, a recession will likely follow as the previously created malinvestments are exposed.
 
But rather than wholeheartedly embrace yield curve analysis, high-ranking Federal Reserve officials consistently waffle at its utilization. Like Westerosi maesters in conclave to determine the advent of winter, they frequently recognize recessions only after their onset.
 
Conclusion
The similarities between the climate in Game of Thrones and the state of the U.S. economy are eerily similar. Prior to the recent beginning of winter, Westeros experienced an unusually long time since the last winter. Likewise, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the current U.S. expansion is the second longest ever at just over nine years (110 months).
 
Also, just as recessions are not phenomena endogenous to free markets (but rather, as discussed above, caused by an artificial expansion of the money supply typically produced/coordinated by central banks), so too the winters in Westeros appear to be generated from an artificial, exogenous source. As protagonist John Snow explained in describing the supernatural White Walkers: “the true enemy won't wait out the storm. He brings the storm.” The Night King is the Westerosi version of the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (with the primary difference being the Night King purposely brings about winter).
 
Finally, like the next winter in Westeros, the next U.S. recession may prove unusually severe by historical standards. In Game of Thrones, many characters (at least the peasants) believe this winter will be the worst in 1,000 years. Given the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary machinations since 2008, the next recession may well prove worse than the last one, and potentially as devastating as the Long Night.
 
Approximately one year ago, speaking as confidently as a Red Priestess of R’hllor, then-Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen believed the next recession-driven financial crisis may be averted for at least a generation or so:
 
Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? . . . Probably that would be going too far. But I do think we're much safer . . . and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes, andI don't believe it will be [emphasis added].
 
You know nothing, Janet Yellen. Winter is coming.
(도표 생략)
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2018년 8월 29일 수요일

장하성 실장
 “소득주도성장 정책 중 최저임금 인상은 임금근로자와 저소득층 등 일부에 영향을 준 것이고 나머지 정책들이 수없이 많기 때문에 정책효과를 바로 규정 짓기는 어렵다"  --- 세계일보

세계일보에서는 위의 기사 소제목을 <정책 효과 오래 걸려>로 뽑았다. 그러니까 장하성의 변명은 소득주도 성장이 효과를 내려면 몇 년을 기다려야 한다는 것이다.
하지만 자유주의 정책을 쓰면 당장 다음 달부터 효과를 볼 수 있다. 최저 임금을 철폐하고, 고용주와 피고용인 사이에 그들의 계약에 따라 시간당 천원이든 만원이든 정하게 한다면, 그 효과는 다음 달에 당장 볼 수가 있다. 
또 기업가들에게 노동자와 동등한 권리를 주어서, 파업에 대해 공장 폐쇄나 대체 근로자 투입 등을 하게 한다면, 경기 활성화가 금방 눈에 띄게 나타날 것이다. 그런데 이런 분명한 정책들을 모두 버리고, 부작용과 역효과만 나는 소득주도 성장을 고집하는 이유는?  

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모든 사람이 동일한 규칙에 따라 행동하고, 동일한 잣대에 따라 판단 받아야 한다고 믿는 사람이 있다면, 그런 사람은 50년 전에는 과격파라 불렀고, 25년 전에는 좌파 리버럴이라고 불렀고, 현재에는 인종차별주의자라고 불린다. 
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나(Errol Morris )는 역사에서 회전하는 거대한 수레바퀴나 끊임없이 반복되는 순환을 찾지 못했다. 그보다 내가 보는 역사는 변덕의 역사, 의도치 않은 결과의 역사, 사소한 이전의 사건으로 말미암아 비롯되는 끔찍한 결과로서의 역사이다. 
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언론의 자유란 당신이 듣고 싶은 말만을 위한 것이 아니다. 그것은 무조건적이다.  알겠소?
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세계에서 수 백, 수 천만 명의 학살을 자행한 사람이, 어떻게  "좌파"라는 타이틀을 달면 영광스런 인물이 되는지는, 미래의 역사가들이 밝혀야 할 미스테리이다.
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소셜 미디어에서 언론의 자유를 보장하게 해달라는 백악관 청원. 구글이나 페이스북 등이 우피 언론을 통제하고 있다.

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나치들은 막시스트는 아니었지만 그들은 사회주의자들이었다.
 
막시스트 사회주의자들은 이탈리아의 파시스트 사회주의자, 독일의 국가 사회주의자 등과 함께 분류되는 것을 반대하지만, 그들 사이의 차이는 표면적일 뿐이고, 경제적으로 보면 그들은 하나이다.
 
Nazis Were Not Marxists, but They Were Socialists
 
Guido Hülsmann
 
The abject practical failure of the Marxist revolutionaries in the post-WWI period had done much harm to their image as the vanguard of social progress.
 
The explanation for this failure in the writings of Mises, Max Weber, and Boris Brutzkus had led many economists to revise their views about the suitable scope of government within society. But others remained unrepentant advocates of the total state. They merely rejected the specifically egalitarian agenda of the socialists.
 
The uncontested leader of this group was Werner Sombart, the greatest star among the interwar economists in Germany. Sombart had started his career popularizing Marxism in academic circles with his 1896 book Sozialismus und soziale Bewegung im 19. Jahrhundert (Socialism and Social Action in the Nineteenth Century).1 Later editions testified to Sombart’s increasing estrangement with his initial Marxist ideals. The tenth edition, which appeared under a new title in 1924, featured an outright demolition of Marxist socialism.2 Sombart had turned back to the mainstream Schmollerite socialism, which advocated the total state without an egalitarian agenda.3
 
Sombart’s intellectual qualities had gained him a place of preeminence. Where most Marxist intellectuals held dogmatically to the tenets of Marx and Engels, Sombart sought to analyze and develop their doctrines with a critical mind in quest of objectivity. This made his work the perfect target for a thorough criticism of the intellectual current of anti-Marxist socialism, and Mises provided such a criticism in an article with the title “Antimarxismus” (Anti-Marxism).4
 
Already in his article on price controls, Mises had pointed out that the shortcomings of interventionism did not result from the egalitarian agenda that some governments pursued, but from the very nature of government intervention itself, namely, the infringement of private property rights. Socialism and interventionism were destructive economic systems whether explicitly egalitarian or not. They would be unsuitable forms of social organization even if they pursued some other ideal of distributioneven meritocracy. There might be certain superficial similarities between a free society and a non-egalitarian one controlled by a total state, but these two would still be essentially different:
 
On the surface the social ideal of etatism does not differ from the social order of capitalism. Etatism does not seek to overthrow the traditional legal order and formally convert all private property in production to public property. . . . But in substance all enterprises are to become government operations. Under this practice, the owners will keep their names and trademarks on the property and the right to an “appropriate” income or one “befitting their ranks.” Every business becomes an office and every occupation a civil service. . . . Prices are set by government, and government determines what is to be produced, how it is to be produced, and in what quantities. There is no speculation, no “extraordinary” profits, no losses. There is no innovation, except for that ordered by government. Government guides and supervises everything.5
 
Mises showed that the error in the idea of the omnipotent state has nothing to do with the state’s particular agenda. The government is not omnipotent if its goal is to improve “collective life” (as opposed to that of mere aggregates of individuals). But neither is it omnipotent if it seeks to enhance the welfare of the totality of individual citizens. In both cases, government intervention is counterproductive. It follows that the time-honored and seemingly significant distinction between individualism and collectivism is of only secondary importance. The primary distinction is between policies that work and policies that do not work, which leads in turn to the distinction between a social order based on private property (which works) and those social orders that depend on infringements of private property rights (and do not work). It is therefore beside the point whether individuals or collectives run the economyprovided only that the property rights of all individual members of the collectives are preserved. It also follows that the size of the firm is of no importance. As long as private property is respected, the buying decisions of the consumers reward only those companies that offer the best products. If these companies are larger than others, so be it.6
 
Mises emphasized this fact against the doctrines of Dietzel, Karl Pribram, and Spann, which had a great influence on interwar political thought in Germany and, after World War II, in the wider western world. Dietzel and Pribram sided with individualism, whereas Spann championed collectivism, but they all agreed that these were the ultimate categories and that all political points of view derived from them.7 Mises disagreed.
 
He argued that there was a point of view that was derived from neither individualism nor collectivism, namely, the utilitarian method of social analysis.8 He had already proved how successful this method was in analyzing the static and dynamic problems of social “wholes” such as language communities, and he emphasized that the analysis of such wholes is the very point of theoretical social science.9 It was fallacious to believe that individual action could be understood out of its wider social context, just as it was false that the proper understanding of social wholes required that the social analysis itself be holistic.
 
The utilitarian method alone was a truly scientific one because it traced all social phenomena back to facts of experience:
 
The utilitarian social doctrine does not engage in metaphysics, but takes as its point of departure the established fact that all living beings affirm their will to live and grow. The higher productivity of labor performed in division of labor, when compared with isolated action, is ever more uniting individuals to association. Society is division and association of labor.10
 
Each person seeks to enhance his welfare, and cooperative labor is more productive than isolated labor. Therefore, insofar as the growth of a person’s welfare presupposes greater quantities of material goods, the person can best attain his ends by engaging in a division of labor. This is how society comes into being.
 
All elements in this economic explanation of society are ascertainable facts. In contrast, the doctrines of individualism and collectivism do not lend themselves to any such causal explanation of the origin of society because they are based on postulates rather than on analysis of fact. And Mises proceeded to show that the same criticism also applied to the Marxist theory of proletarian class struggle. He did not deny that human history featured many group conflicts and that they often had great importance for the course of events. Rather, he argued that the fashionable struggle theoriesof which the Marxist theory of class struggle was but one particular instancepurported to be much more than they really were. Group conflicts were not, and could not possibly be, the basic elements of human life. The real question was how any group could come into existence in the first place. One first had to explain the formation of groups before one could explain the struggle between them. But all struggle theorists, Marx included, failed on this front.
 
The reason for this negligence is not difficult to detect. It is impossible to demonstrate a principle of association that exists within a collective group only, and that is inoperative beyond it. If war and strife are the driving forces of all social development, why should this be true for classes, races, and nations only, and not for war among all individuals? If we take this warfare sociology to its logical conclusion we arrive at no social doctrine at all, but at “a theory of unsociability.”11
 
Mises pointed out that Marx’s theory of class struggle even failed to give an empirical account of its most basic concept. What is a “class” in the Marxist sense? Marx had never defined it. “And it is significant that the posthumous manuscript of the third volume of Das Kapital halts abruptly at the very place that was to deal with classes.” Mises went on:
 
Since his death more than forty years have passed, and the class struggle has become the cornerstone of modern German sociology. And yet we continue to await its scientific definition and delineation. No less vague are the concepts of class interests, class condition, and class war, and the ideas on the relationship between conditions, class interests, and class ideology.12
 
Werner Sombart, along with the great majority of German sociologists of whom he was the undisputed leader, had adopted the Marxist view that proletarian class struggle was the ultimate driving force in modern societies. He was now an opponent of Marxist ideology, but his analyses still remained Marxian. He merely refrained from drawing all the practical conclusions, which Marx and the Marxists had consistently deduced, from the theory of class struggle. He did not and could not provide an alternative to the Marxist scenario of social evolution. His only objection came in the form of a postulate: things should not happen as they would happen according to the theory of class struggle, therefore government should resist such developments. Yet with this admission, Sombart and the bulk of the German sociologists had again left the realm of science and entered that of religion and ethics. Sombart in fact championed a return to medieval forms of social organizationthe guildsjust as Keynes in England proposed “a return, it may be said, towards medieval conceptions of separate autonomies.”13 Similarly, the few theorists who had thoroughly criticized Marx’s concept of class struggle, like Othmar Spann, marveled at the alleged blessings of national socialism in the middle ages.
 
Mises concluded:
 
for every scientific thinker the objectionable point of Marxism is its theory, which seems to cause no offence to the Anti-Marxist. . . . The Anti-Marxist merely objects to the political symptoms of the Marxian system, not to its scientific content. He regrets the harm done by Marxian policies to the German people, but is blind to the harm done to German intellectual life by the platitudes and deficiencies of Marxian problems and solutions. Above all, he fails to perceive that political and economic troubles are consequences of this intellectual calamity. He does not appreciate the importance of science for everyday living, and, under the influence of Marxism, believes that “real” power instead of ideas is shaping history.14
 
“Anti-Marxism” caused outrage among the Marxists. What was Mises’s sin? First, he had dared criticize the great master with a penetrating analysis of the incurable shortcomings of Marx’s theory of class struggle. Second, he had again contended that from an economic point of view Marxist socialism was not essentially different from the various new brands of national socialism that had begun to spring up in the 1920s, mostly in reaction against Marxist movements. Thus a fraction of Italian socialists, who rejected the teachings of Marx and called themselves “Fascists,” rose to power under the leadership of Benito Mussolini. There was also a movement of non-Marxist “National Socialists” in Germany. The father of this movement was Friedrich Naumann who, by a strange coincidence, later came to be regarded as the godfather of twentieth-century German liberalism.15 The leader of the National Socialists from the 1920s until their bitter end was, of course, Adolf Hitler.
 
Marxist socialists vociferously object to being classified under the same heading that includes Fascist Socialists and National Socialists. But as Mises showed, all distinctions between these groups are on the surface. Economically, they are united.
 
Excerpted with minor revision from Mises: Last Knight of Liberalism
주석
1. Before Sombart’s appearance, the German universities received Marx’s writings very critically. In the United States, too, the rise of Marxism encountered the same reservations in academic circles until, some forty-five years after Sombart, Joseph Schumpeter popularized Marx as an important thinker in his Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1942).
2. Werner Sombart, Der proletarische Sozialismus (“Marxismus”), 10th ed., 2 vols. (Jena: Gustav Fische
3. Here is the most favorable thing Mises had to say about Sombart: “He was highly gifted, but at no time did he endeavor to think and work seriously. . . . And yet, it was more stimulating to talk to Sombart than to most other professors. At least he was not stupid and obtuse.” Mises, Erinnerungen (Stuttgart: Gustav Fischer Verlag, 1978), p. 68; Notes and Recollections (Spring Mills, Penn.: Libertarian Press, 1978), p. 103.
4. Mises, “Antimarxismus,” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 21 (1925) reprinted in Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, pp. 91122; translated as “Anti-Marxism,” in A Critique of Interventionism, pp. 10738.
5. Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, pp. 124f.; A Critique of Interventionism, pp. 140f.
6. Keynes was convinced that, in attacking and criticizing individualism, he had destroyed the case for laissez-faire. See John Maynard Keynes, The End of Laissez-Faire (London: Hogarth Press, 1926), pp. 39f. The postulate of a dichotomy between individualism and collectivism led Keynes to anticipate the now-famous Coasean view on the problem of optimal social organization. Thus Keynes surmised that the “ideal size for the unit of control and organization lies somewhere between the individual and the modern State” (ibid., p. 41). The Coasean theory is best expressed in Ronald Coase, The Firm, the Market, and the Law (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1988).
7. Heinrich Dietzel, “Individualismus,” Handwörterbuch der Staaswissenschaften, 4th ed. (1923), vol. 5; Alfred Pribram, Die Entstehung der individualistischen Sozialphilosophie (Leipzig: Hirschfeld, 1912); Othmar Spann, Der Wahre Staat (Leipzig: Quelle & Meyer, 1921).
8. Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, pp. 95f., 111. He stated:
In the final analysis, there is no conflict of interest between society and the individual, as everyone can pursue his interests more efficiently in society than in isolation. The sacrifices the individual makes to society are merely temporary, surrendering a small advantage in order to attain a greater one. This is the essence of the often cited doctrine of the harmony of interests. (A Critique of Interventionism, pp. 112f.)
9. 2“What society is, how it originates, how it changesthese alone can be the problems which scientific sociology sets itself.” Mises, Socialism: An Economic and Sociological Analysis (Indianapolis: Liberty Fund, 1981). To be perfectly clear, Mises believed that the positive analysis of the emergence and transformation of social wholes had to rely on methodological individualism. Based on this analysis, one could apply the utilitarian method, that is, raise the question whether any given policy was suitable to attain its goals. Othmar Spann rejected not only individualism as a political orientation, but also as a methodological device.
10. Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, p. 96; A Critique of Interventionism, p. 112.
11. Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, p. 100; A Critique of Interventionism, p. 116. Mises quotes here Paul Barth, Die Philosophie der Geschichte als Soziologie, 3rd ed. (Leipzig: Reisland, 1922), p. 260.
12. Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, pp. 101f.; A Critique of Interventionism, pp. 117f.
13. Keynes, The End of Laissez-Faire, pp. 42f.
14. Mises, Kritik des Interventionismus, p. 121; A Critique of Interventionism, p. 137.

15. See Ralph Raico, Die Partei der Freiheit (Stuttgart: Lucius & Lucius, 1999), chap. 6.

----> 미제스, 하이에크 등 히틀러를 직접 경험했던 사람들은 모두 나치가 사회주의자들이었다고 주장하고 있다. 그들이 극우라는 주장은 좌파들의 선전선동일 뿐이다. 
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방금 SBS8시 뉴스에 나왔더라...

강원도인데 산중턱을 깍아서 태양광발전소를 지었는데 그거 이번 폭우에 완전히 망가지고 산사태우려때문에 인근주민들 긴급 대피했다고 하더라

강원주민 노인인터뷰도있었는데... 자기가  평생 살면서 산사태위험으로 대피하기는 처음이라더라... "전에는 이런적이 없었는데..." 이러면서...

딱보니 산중턱에 태양광패널 설치한다고 멀쩡한 나무 다 뽑아버리니 비 많이오면 무조건 산사태나게 생겼더라 ㅉㅉ

이게 나라냐!




[출처] [속보] 태양광발전소때문에 강원도주민 산사태위험 긴급대피!
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굳이 통계 조작이 아니더라도, 경제적 파산은 이미 예정되어 있다.
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지금 국회의원은 대부분 운동권 출신
운동권이 뭐냐?

의식화 교육, 위장취업, 전경들에 화염병 쇠파이프 공격
그러면서 북한에 갔다오기도 하고 
일부는 고문을 당하기도 하고 투옥되기도 하고
일부는 백골단에게 폭행도 경찰에 성폭행도 당했다.
그들 입장에서는 최소한 그당시에는 이가 갈리고 철천지 원수로 여겨졌을 것이다.
그 중 일부는 지금도 그렇게 생각하고 있을 수도.
누구를 ? 박정희 전두환 노태우 등등

그런 그들이 새누리당에서 모든 것을 잊고 박근혜에게 
담담히 협조하리라고 생각했던 것이 너무 순진한 생각이었던 것이다.

TV 대담 프로에서 새누리 출신 국회의원이
+억울하다+는 표정으로 자신도 대학생 때 데모도 했다 라고 말하는 걸 봤다.
그렇다 국회의원들 사이에서는 아직도 대학생때 NL이니 PD니 하면서 
정부 저항운동한 것이 자랑거리이고 별인 것이다.

즉 좌 우를 떠나 지금 국회의원들은 
대부분 젋어서의 반독재 운동과 함께 교육 받은 공산주의 사상이나 주최사상(김일성종교)에서
깨어나지 못했거나 
아직 혼란 스러운 상태인듯한다.

박정희-- 전두환-- 노태우 까지는 우파라 할 수 있었지만
김영삼 이인간 이전 정치 행보를 고려할 때
정권 쟁취를 위해 적진영이었던 노태우와 연합을 한 거지.

김영삼은 좌파의 트로이의 목마였던 것이다.(그당시 시점에서는 노태우가 정치를 잘해서 좌파를 분열시켰다고 할 수도 있었지만)
김영삼 518 특별법 만들어 주기도 하고
전두환 노태우 병신 만들고

이후 김대중 노무현 이명박으로 넘어갔지

그럼 이명박이 우파냐?
한나라당 공천파동을 일으켜 친이 친박 대결구도를 만들었던
이명박 따까리 이재오 및 그 패거리가 (이재오 : 남민전. 남조선민족해방준비위원회, 전혀 새누리에 안어울리는 인물)
이명박과 박근혜 사이를 이간질 했을 가능성이 높다.
(개인적으로 이명박은 기업가 출신으로 그냥 정치는 모르는 좌도 아니고 우도 아닌 아니 좌좀에게 조종당한 부패 기업인이 아닌가 판단된다)

결국 박근혜는 
선거때 박근혜 덕을 본 새누리 국회의원들의 보물 덩어리였지만
새누리 국회의원들(대학 때 데모에 열심이였던) 속으로는 
맘이 편치 않았을 것이다. (자신들의 투쟁 대상이고 자신들을 박해 하던 박정희의 딸에 고개를 숙이려니.)
속으로는 저주 하는 인간들도 있었을 것이다. (이재오는 틀림없이 그중에 하나일 것이고)

결국 박정희-전두환-노태우-김영삼-김대중-노무현-이명박-박근혜-문죄인

이렇게 써놓고 보면
우파는 정권은 노태우 이후 없었다고 봐야한다.
김영삼 이후는 그냥 보수좌파(운동권 출신들) 진보 좌파의 여당 야당 싸움으로 봐야 한다.

노태우 퇴임 1993년 이후 
공무원이든 국회의원이든 다 좌파로 채워진 상태에서
2013년 20년 만에 박근혜는 대통령이 된 것이다.
고위 공무원들의 물은 어땠을까?
국회의원들은?

이것이 탄핵의 원인이라고 생각된다.

왜 새누리에서 지들 대통령을 배반한 인간들이 그렇게 많았을까? 의 대답이 아닌가 생각한다.
그렇게 많은 60명이나 되는 새누리 국회의원이 탄핵 찬성이라는 배반을 때린 이유는?

1. 박근혜는 20년 만에 우파 대통령
2. 이미 정부 관료 국회의원은 대부분 좌파
3. 새누리 내 국회의원도 대부분 좌파(박정희 딸 박근혜를 꼽게 보는, 아문법등 어이 없는 법들이 통과되는 것을 봐도)
4. 대한민국에는 진정한 우파 국회의원은 극소수이다.(지금 자한당은 우파 코스프레하는 좌파)
5. 자한당이 건재하면 우파는 결집될 수가 없다.(자한당은 트로이 목마를 타고 들어온 좌파에 점령당한 상태)
    -- 김성태 : 한국노총 사무총장 출신

[출처] 박근혜 탄핵당한 이유. (김영삼은 트로이의 목마)
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