이것이 자본주의다. 도표 한 컷으로 자본주의의 우월성을 말해주고 있다. 인류가 자본주의를 시작한 이후로 전체 부(富)가 급격히 상승했다.

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학교는 공사 중.

오늘 동아일보 티비의 뉴스를 보니, 울릉도가 정부의 난개발로 몸살을 앓고 있다고 한다. 이유는 정부가 경기를 부양하기 위해 막대한 돈을 풀어서, 여기 저기 공사판을 벌여 놓았기 때문이다. 내가 사는 곳 근처에도 학교와 시립어린이집이 모두 공사중이다. 정부에서 예산을 내려주고, 공사를 하라고 권장하고 있는 듯하다. 이렇게 돈이 풀리면, 시장에서 돌고 돌아 경기가 활성화 된다는 엉터리 케인즈 경제학 때문이다. (목소리 큰 환경단체인가 뭔가하는 데서도, 을릉도의 이런 난개발에는 별로 말이 없는 듯하다.)
하지만 천만의 말씀, 만만의 콩떡이다. 만일 학교와 어린이집이 개인 소유이고, 정부의 보조가 없다면, 이런 공사는 하지 않았을 것이다. 학교는 지금 멀쩡한 외벽을 긁어내고 다시 페인트를 칠하고 있고, 어린이집은 인테리어를 다시 바꾸고 있는데, 그냥 써도 무방한 것들이다. 굳이 돈을 써야 할 이유가 없다. 
프랑스의 바스티아가 <보이는 것과 보이지 않는 것>에서 말했듯이, 국민의 피 같은 돈을 이런데 쓰면, 지디피는 오를지 몰라도 국가의 부는 생산되지 않는다.  하지만 만일 이 돈이 개인 기업가에게 돌아갔다면, 그는 이 돈을 투자해서, 더 많은 부를 창출하는 데 썼을 것이다.  학교를 비롯해 나라 전체가 공사 중이다. 하지만 이건 투자가 아니라, 낭비에 가깝다. 자기 돈이 아니니 그냥 물 흘리듯이 마구 쓰고 있다. 머지않아 국민의 눈물과 원성이 나라에 가득찰 것이다.
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드루킹 사건 특검 수사 종료일(25일)이

임박한 가운데, 이 사건은 ‘3.15 부정선거

이상 가는 정치적 범죄’로서,

헌법상 국민주권의 원리와 참정권에 대한

침해이며, 형법상 공무집행방해죄와

업무방해죄, 더 나아가 내란죄에 해당한다는 주장이 나왔다.

지난 8월 16일 열린 미디어연대 주최

토론회에서 조원룡 변호사는

“1960년 3월 15일 발생한 3.15부정선거

가 한국 민주주의의 근본을 파괴한

정치적 범죄이듯이

드루킹 사건은 사이버공간이 중요한

여론 형성의 공간으로 등장한 현대사회

에 있어서는 금권선거를 넘어서는

파괴적 정치공작으로 국민주권에 대한

강도질이자 한국민주주의 제도에 대한

사이버테러로서 3.15부정선거 이상의 정치적 범죄”라고 비판했다

(~중략)

같은 토론회에서

이석우 동국대 객원교수는

드루킹 사건을 이른바 국가정보원,

국군사이버사령부의 댓글 사건과 비교,

드루킹 사건의 심각성을 지적했다.

이 교수는

“국정원이 2009년 2월~2013년 3월

4년간 불법 정치 관여 글을 게시한 것은

1970회, 불법 찬반 클릭은 1711회(2013.6.14. 국정원 사건 수사결과 발표 내용)이고,

사이버사령부의 MB정부 및 박근혜 정부

당시 정치성 댓글·SNS 게시물 수는

약 1만 2844건(2018.7.2. 국방부 사이버댓글 조사 TF 가동결과 발표)”이라면서

“반면, 드루킹 일당의 불법 댓글 활동은,

1년 5개월간 김경수에 대한 일일보고

기사작업 내용이 8만 건(드루킹 진술)이고,

검찰 1차 기소 내용에 의하면 '킹크랩'

시스템을 이용, 총 2286개의 네이버

아이디로 537개 뉴스 기사의 댓글

1만 6000여 개에 매크로 프로그램을

실행해서 184만여 회에 걸쳐 부정 클릭을

했으며,

경찰은 드루킹 일당이 2016년 11월부터

7만 5000개 기사의 댓글 110만여 개에

여론 조작을 한 정황이 담긴 수사기록

을 검찰에 송치했으며.

해당 댓글에 대한 조작 클릭 수가

총 8600만 건에 달하는 것으로 파악했다.

특검팀은 댓글 조작 의심 행위 1000여만 건을 추가 확인했다”고 밝혔다.

이 교수는

“드루킹 사건과 ‘최순실 국정농단’과

비교할 때, 최순실은 대통령 연설문

수정 제안 정도의 개인비리 성격인 반면,

드루킹은 국가 핵심 정책을 자문하고,

방대한 댓글에 대해 여론 조작을 했으며, 불법 정치자금을 제공한 혐의”라고 지적했다.

이 교수는 특검 기한 연장과 관련, “문재인 대통령 자신에 대한 의혹과도 관련되므로 더욱더 연장 승인을 해야 한다”고 강조했다.

[출처] 월간조선 뉴스룸)) "조원룡 변호사, 드루킹 사건은 '3.15부정선거 이상 가는 정치적 범죄' "
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금리는 어떻게 사람들을 통제하나?

 

대부분의 전문가들은 중앙은행이 단기 금리를 조작함으로써, 사람들의 예상을 이용해, 또 다시 장기 금리의 방향까지도 통제할 수 있다고 주장한다. 따라서 금리를 통제할 수 있는 중앙은행이 경제적 번영까지도 책임질 수 있다는 것이다.

하지만 금리를 결정하는 주요 요소는 과연 중앙은행일까?

하지만 멩거나 미제스에 따르면, 금리는 사람들이 미래의 상품이나 서비스보다 현재의 상품이나 서비스에 더 많은 가치를 둔다는 사실에서 비롯된다.

가난한 사람은 좀더 발달한 도구를 만들 엄두를 내지 못한다. 하지만 부가 증가하면, 그는 차츰 더 나은 도구를 만들 생각을 갖게 된다.

부가 창출되어야 저축이 가능해지고, 저축이 있으면 다시 이를 통해 더 많은 부를 만들 수가 있다. 실질적인 부가 축적될수록 정기적인 목적을 위해 저축을 배당할 수 있다. 이렇게 현재보다 미래의 상품을 선호하게 되면, 그것은 금리의 하락으로 나타난다.

금리의 변화는 기업가에게 다양한 자본 투자의 타당성을 알려준다.

통화를 시장에 퍼부으면 시간이 지나면서 금리를 끌어올리게 된다.

일반적인 이론이 말하듯이, 금리는 그 자체로 투자를 증가시키거나 감소시키지 않는다. 자본재 생산이 확대되는 것은 금리 그 자체가 아니라, 실질 저축 전체가 늘어났기 때문이다.

 

How to Manipulate People with Interest Rates

 

Frank Shostak

 

 

Most experts agree that through the manipulation of short-term interest rates, the central bank by means of expectations regarding future interest rate policy, can also dictate the direction of long-term interest rates. In this way of thinking expectations regarding future short-term interest rates are instrumental in setting the long-term rates. (Note the long-term rates are an average of short-term rates in this way of thinking.)

 

Given the supposedly almost absolute control over interest rates, the central bank by correct manipulations of short-term interest rates could navigate the economy along the growth path of economic prosperity, so it is held. (In fact, this is the mandate given to central banks.)

 

For instance, when the economy is thought to have fallen below the path of stable economic growth it is held that by means of lowering interest rates the central bank could strengthen aggregate demand. This in turn will be supportive in bringing the economy onto a stable economic growth path.

 

Conversely, when the economy becomes “overheated” and moves onto a growth path above that which is deemed as stable economic growth, then by lifting interest rates the central bank could slow the economy back onto the path of economic stability.

 

But is it valid to suggest that the central bank is the key factor in the determination of interest?

 

Individuals Time Preferences and Interest Rates

 

According to great economic thinkers such as Carl Menger and Ludwig von Mises, interest is the outcome of the fact that every individual assigns a greater importance to goods and services in the present against identical goods in the future.

 

The higher valuation is not the result of capricious behavior, but because of the fact that life in the future is not possible without sustaining it first in the present. According to Carl Menger,

 

Human life is a process in which the course of future development is always influenced by previous development. It is a process that cannot be continued once it has been interrupted, and that cannot be completely rehabilitated once it has become seriously disordered. A necessary prerequisite of our provision for the maintenance of our lives and for our development in future periods is a concern for the preceding periods of our lives. Setting aside the irregularities of economic activity, we can conclude that economizing men generally endeavor to ensure the satisfaction of needs of the immediate future first, and that only after this has been done, do they attempt to ensure the satisfaction of needs of more distant periods, in accordance with their remoteness in time.

 

Hence, various goods and services that are required to sustain man’s life at present must be of a greater importance to him than the same goods and services in the future.

 

On this Menger wrote,

 

To the extent that the maintenance of our lives depends on the satisfaction of our needs, guaranteeing the satisfaction of earlier needs must necessarily precede attention to later ones. And even where not our lives but merely our continuing well-being (above all our health) is dependent on command of a quantity of goods, the attainment of well-being in a nearer period is, as a rule, a prerequisite of well-being in a later period. Command of the means for the maintenance of our well-being at some distant time avails us little if poverty and distress have already undermined our health or stunted our development in an earlier period.

 

Similarly, Mises wrote that,

 

He who wants to live to see the later day, must first of all care for the preservation of his life in the intermediate period. Survival and appeasement of vital needs are thus requirements for the satisfaction of any wants in the remoter future.

 

Life sustenance therefore serves as the standard of valuation regarding present goods versus future goods. According to Mises,

 

If he (the consumer) were not to prefer satisfaction in a nearer period of the future to that in a remoter period, he would never consume and so satisfy wants. He would always accumulate, he would never consume and enjoy. He would not consume today, but he would not consume tomorrow either, as the tomorrow would confront him with the same alternative.

 

As long as the means at an individual’s disposal are just sufficient to accommodate his immediate needs, he will most likely assign less importance for future goals. With the expansion of the pool of means, the individual can now allocate some of those means toward the accomplishments of various ends in the future.

 

Life Sustenance and Zero Interest Rate

As a rule, with the expansion of the pool of means people tend to allocate more means toward the accomplishment of remote goals in order to improve their quality of life over time.

 

With scarce means, an individual can only consider very short-term goals, such as making a primitive tool. The meager size of his means does not permit him to undertake the making of more advanced tools. With the increase in the means at his disposal, he could consider undertaking the construction of better tools.

 

No individual undertakes a goal, which promises a zero return. The maintenance of the process of life over and above hand to mouth existence requires an expansion in wealth. The wealth expansion implies positive returns. It is through the generation of wealth, after allowing for the maintenance of life and well-being in the present, that savings become possible.

 

These savings in turn permit further expansions in wealth. The expansion in the pool of real wealth permits a greater allocation of savings toward longer-term goals, implying a greater preference for future goods, i.e., a lowering of interest rates.

 

While prior to the expansion of real wealth the need to sustain life and well-being in the present made it impossible to embark on various long-term projects, with more wealth this has become possible. The extra wealth that becomes available is invested because the expected future benefits outweigh the benefits of consuming them in the present.

 

Interest rates Guide Business Decision Makers

Since in the market economy interest is calculated in money terms, it would appear that money is a determining factor of the level of interest. Being the medium of exchange, money only facilitates the flow of real savings from lenders to borrowers, or from suppliers to demanders. Money however, has nothing to do with the fact that interest is the outcome of a higher valuation of present goods versus future goods.

 

Changes in interest rates instruct businesses about the feasibility of undertaking various capital projects. A fall in the interest rate will mean that a greater proportion of means was made available for these projects. Conversely, a rise in the interest rate will imply that less funding is available to these projects.

 

In setting an interest rate, both a buyer and a seller of real savings must allow for the fact that central banks relentlessly depreciate the purchasing power of money by means of the printing presses.

 

Hence, expectations for depreciation in the purchasing power of money will contribute to an increase in interest expressed in money terms. Conversely, expectations that money’s purchasing power will increase will contribute towards the lowering of interest.

 

Observe that monetary pumping, which erodes the purchasing power of money, also weakens the flow of real savings by setting an exchange of nothing for something. This weakens the formation of real wealth, which in turn increases people’s preference toward present consumption and hence to a rise in the underlying interest rates that corresponds to individuals’ time preferences. To conclude then over time, monetary pumping lifts the level of interest rates.

 

Does the Lowering of Interest Permit Greater Capital Formation?

Being the outcome of the fact that life sustenance imposes a greater importance to present goods versus future goods, interest as such does not cause more or less investment, as popular theories have it.

It is true that businessmen react to interest rates. In this sense, the interest rate can be regarded as an indicator. What permits an expansion of capital goods production is not interest rates as such but the increase in the pool of real savings. A greater allocation of real saved wealth toward the buildup of capital goods, manifested by the lowering of people’s time preferences — the lowering of interest rates. (Note again what enables the expansion of capital goods investments is the greater allocation of real saved wealth and not the lowering of interest rate as such, which just reflects the greater allocation of real wealth toward the capital investment.)

 

When interest rates are not tampered with, they serve as an important tool in facilitating the flow of real savings toward the build-up of a wealth-generating infrastructure.

 

Whenever the central bank tampers with interest rates it falsifies this indicator, thereby breaking the harmony between the production of present consumer goods and the production of capital goods, i.e., tools and machinery. An overinvestment in capital goods and an underinvestment in consumer goods emerges. While an overinvestment in capital goods results in a boom, the liquidation of this overinvestment produces a bust. Hence, the boom-bust economic cycle. On this Rothbard wrote,

 

…once the consumers reestablish their desired consumption/investment proportions, it is thus revealed that business had invested too much in capital goods (hence the term "monetary overinvestment theory"), and had also underinvested in consumer goods. Business had been seduced by the government tampering and artificial lowering of the rate of interest, and acted as if more savings were available to invest than were really there.

 

Conclusions

To conclude, as long as life sustenance remains the ultimate goal of human beings they will continue to assign a higher valuation to present goods versus future goods and no central bank interest rate manipulation will be able to change this.

 

Any attempt by central-bank policy makers to overrule this fact will undermine the process of real wealth formation and thus lower people’s living standards.

 

The central bank can try to manipulate the interest rate to whatever level it desires. However they cannot exercise control over the underlying interest rates as dictated by people’s time preferences. When the central bank engages in a persistent lowering of interest rates this policy sets in motion an increase in the underlying interest rates as dictated by people’s time preferences. (The exact opposite of the central bank’s intention.)

 

It is not going to help true economic growth if the central bank artificially lowers interest rates whilst the people did not allocate an adequate amount of real savings to support the expansion of capital goods investments. It is not possible to replace real saved wealth with more money and the artificial lowering of interest rates. It is not possible to generate something out of nothing as suggested by Keynes and his many followers.

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