2019년 11월 21일 목요일

박선영 (전 국회의원)


 과연 김명수답다.
  가히 김명수스럽다.
  
  아니, 대한민국의 대법원장 김명수는
  한 마디로 민족문제연구소의 따까리다.
  
  6대 6으로 팽팽하게 맞선 가운데
  김명수가 왼쪽에 표를 주는 바람에
  확실하게 뒤집혀 파기환송되었다.
  
  김명수 때문에 나라는
  점점 아수라장이 되고 있다.
  
  앞으로는 모든 방송사가
  특정인에 대한 역사방송을 할 때
  시청자한테 의뢰해서 제작, 방송하면
  객관성과 공정성, 균형성을
  지키지 않아도 책임지지 않게 됐다.
  
  참 희한한 법논리다.
  
  문제는 민족문제연구소가
  일반 시청자가 아니라,
  지명도, 아니 악명 높은
  역사문제연구소라는 사실이다.
  
  역사문제를 다루는 연구소가
  방송용으로 제작한 것은
  방송사 PD가 제작한 것보다
  더 공정하고 더 객관적이어야 한다.
  
  왜?
  전문가니까.
  방송사 PD보다 역사문제에는
  더 일가견이 넓고 깊으니까.
  
  그런데도
  민족문제연구소는 일반 시청자고,
  '일반 시청자가 만들었으니
  객관성과 공정성이 결여돼도 괜찮다'고?
  
  가히 김명수스러운 판결이다. (발췌)
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<지(知)와 정(情)>
홍표정
  
  知와 情은 삶의 저울이다. 그 어느 한 편으로 기울면 패가망신하기 쉽다. 知에 기울면 주변에 사람이 줄고 情에 기울면 세상 유혹에 벗어나기 어렵다.
  
  일본 근대 문학의 선구자였던 나츠메 소세키(夏目漱石)는 “知에 맡기면 角이 돋고 情에 노(櫓) 주면 떠내려간다.(知にまかせば角がだつ。情にさおさせば流される)”는 말을 남겼다. 대다수 일본인들이 기억하는 명구로서 그들의 知와 情에 대한 태도를 엿볼 수 있다.
  
  일찍이 헤르만 헷세의 소설 ‘知와 사랑(나르치스와 골드문트)’도 ‘知와 情’의 균형성을 강조한다. ‘情’에 탐닉한 골드문트의 파멸적 삶이 나르치스의 ‘知’의 삶에 융합됨으로써 마침내 성공적으로 마감하고 있음을 보여준다. (조갑제닷컴 발췌)

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적화통일 되기 직전에 직전에 전투 한번은 해볼 수 있을까..?



지금 이대로라면 군인들 총한발 안쏘고 무장해제하고 김정은 밑으로 들어갈거 같다만,,
동사무소에서 예비군들 총나눠주면서 그래도 애국심있는 사람들은 결사항전하다가 죽을 수 있는 기회가 있을까?
그게 공산, 독재정권에서 사는것보단 훨씬 나으니까  일베

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황교안 
"단식 폄훼 개의치 않아…지켜야 할 가치 지킬 뿐"

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Matt Ridley인증된 계정 

It's almost ten years since I published a book arguing exactly this, at a time when most people were convinced the world had begun a terrible decline.

대부분의 사람들이 거대한 쇠퇴가 시작되었다고 믿던 10여

년 전에, 나는 아래와 같은 주장을 <합리적 낙관주의자>에서

펼쳤다.


When is the last time you heard anyone tell you that

across the last several decades billions of human

beings have been lifted out of poverty because of

globalization (trade), technological interconnection

and the spreading of free market economics? It is

the truth.

세계화와 기술의 상호접촉, 자유시장 경제의 확산 등에

의해 지난 수십년간 수십억 명의 인구가 가난에서 탈

출했다고 말하는 걸 당신이 마지막으로 들은 건 언제

였던가? 그건 진실이었다.

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Matt Ridley인증된 계정 
Bill Gates in 1995, trying to convince David Letterman the

Internet is more useful than radio or magazines...

1995년 빌 게이츠가 레터맨에게 인터넷이 라디오나 잡지보다

더 유용하다는 것을 설득하려 하고 있다.


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OK Boomer Norm 
I loved @mattwridley's book, The Evolution of Everything. “[W]e all go around assuming the world is much more of a planned place than it is. As a result, again and again we mistake cause for effect...”

우리는 실제보다 더 많이 세계가 계획에 따라 움직이고 있다고

믿고 있다. 그 결과 우리는 원인을 결과로 착각한다.


---->복잡계는 계획이 없이, 다중의 자발적인 행동에 의해 자

생적 질서가 탄생한다. 시장이 그 한 예로서, 사람들이 시장에

가서 물건을 사고 파는 행위를 하게 되면, 거기에서 수요와 공

급의 법칙에 의해 생산이 조절되고, 경쟁에 의해 무능력한 사

업가나 장사꾼은 퇴출된다. 이런 모든 일이 누구의 계획 없이

도 일어난다.

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GWPF 
The BBC is absurdly promoting the now-notorious Roger Hallam's claim that 6 billion people will die from climate change. @RHarrabin will you get HardTalk to take this down?

비비씨가 멸종 반란 운동의 공동 창설자인 로저 할람의 "기후

변화로 60억 인구가 죽을 것이다"라는 주장을 내보내고 있다.

하드톡 프로그램에서 그의 방송을 금지하라!

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Evolution is far more common, and far more influential, than most people recognise. It is not confined to genetic systems, but explains the way that virtually all of human culture changes: from morality to technology, from money to religion.

진화는 단지 유전적 체계에만 적용되는 게 아니라, 도덕과 기

술, 화폐와 종교에 이르기까지 인간 문화의 거의 전분야에 적

용될 수 있다.

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Matthew O'Connell 
The idiocy of believing China would play by our rules was evident from the start & even a casual reading of Chinese national character & its history. Huawei is a warning sign to Western nativity & the limits of globalisation & the so-called free-market.

화웨이는 세계화의 탄생과 한계 그리고 자유시장에 대한 경고

이다.


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자유란 차별할 권리가 있다는 의미이다.
 
진정한 문제는 고용에서의 차별을 금지하는 법률이 정당한 법률인가 아닌가이다.
차별에 대한 자유주의의 입장은 이렇다: 차별은 어떤 근거, 어떤 이유로, 또 누구에게 하던, 그것이 공격이나 강요, 위협, 폭력이 아니므로, 정부는 그것을 금지하거나 벌주어서는 안 된다는 것이다.
고용에서의 차별을 금지하는 것은, 사상의 자유, 사유재산, 자유 기업, 자유 시장, 결사의 자유를 침해하는 것이다.
 
Freedom Means a Right to Discriminate
 
Laurence M. Vance
 
Should employers have the right to discriminate in hiring on the basis of obesity? The Washington State Supreme Court recently ruled that “it is illegal for employers in Washington to refuse to hire qualified potential employees because the employer perceives them to be obese.”
 
That follows guidelines released by the New York City Commission on Human Rights stating that discrimination against people based on their hairstyle will now be considered a form of racial discrimination; the refusal by the U.S. Supreme Court to hear an appeal from a lower court’s ruling that the owner of a bed and breakfast in Hawaii violated the state’s public-accommodation law, which bars discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, when she refused to rent a room to a lesbian couple; and guidelines issued by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) making it tougher for homesellers and landlords to discriminate against applicants who have criminal records.
 
Here is what happened in the state of Washington:
 
The Washington Law Against Discrimination (WLAD), part of the Revised Code of Washington (RCW), the compilation of all laws now in force in Washington State, generally prohibits employers from discriminating against an employee because the employee has a disability. That echoes the federal Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (ADA), which “makes it illegal to discriminate against a qualified person with a disability.”
 
According to Taylor v. Burlington Northern Railroad Holdings , the case in question decided by the Washington State Supreme Court in 2007, Casey Taylor received a conditional offer of employment as an electronic technician for BNSF Railway Company (BNSF), contingent on the results of a physical exam and a medical history questionnaire. A medical exam found that Taylor’s height was 5 feet 6 inches and his weight was 256 pounds, resulting in a body mass index (BMI) of 41.3 numbers different from those self-reported by Taylor. (According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [ CDC ], a BMI of 40 or higher is categorized as “extreme” or “severe” obesity.) BNSF treats a BMI over 40 as a “trigger” for further screening in the employment process. BNSF told Taylor it was unable to determine whether he was medically qualified for the job “due to significant health and safety risks associated with ‘extreme obesity’ and ‘uncertain status of knees and back.’” BNSF offered to reconsider if Taylor would pay for medical testing, including a sleep study, blood work, and an exercise-tolerance test, but being unemployed at the time with no medical insurance, Taylor could not afford the testing. BNSF told Taylor that it was company policy not to hire anyone who had a BMI over 35 and that if he could not afford the testing his only option was to lose 10 percent of his weight and keep it off for six months.
 
Taylor then sued in King County Superior Court, alleging that BNSF violated the WLAD by refusing to hire him because of a perceived disability obesity. BNSF removed the case to federal court and moved for summary judgment, relying on federal cases interpreting federal law to argue that obesity is not a disability under the WLAD unless it is caused by a separate, underlying physiological disorder. The U.S. District Court for the Western District of Washington dismissed the case, ruling that “under the WLAD, a plaintiff alleging disability discrimination on the basis of obesity must show that his or her obesity is caused by a physiological condition or disorder or that the defendant perceived the plaintiff’s obesity as having such a cause.” Taylor appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, which ruled that whether obesity may constitute an impairment, and thus a disability, under the WLAD is an unresolved issue of state law and certified the question to the Washington State Supreme Court.
 
The Washington State Supreme Court, in a 7-2 vote, concluded,
 
We answer the certified question as follows obesity always qualifies as an impairment under the plain language of ROW 49.60.040(7)(c)(i) because it is a “physiological disorder, or condition” that affects many of the listed body systems. Plaintiffs making a disparate treatment claim under the WLAD need not show that they actually had an impairment, e.g., that they actually were suffering from obesity. They need show only that their actual or potential employers perceived them to have a statutory impairment. RCW 49.60.040(7)(a)(iii). Because obesity qualifies as an impairment under the plain language of our statute, it is illegal for employers in Washington to refuse to hire qualified potential employees because the employer perceives them to be obese. See RCW 49.60.180.
 
The two dissenting justices agreed with the majority on most points, but concluded that “the majority’s answer to the certified questions, that obesity is always an impairment for purposes of the WLAD, ignores the need for an individualized inquiry.” Nowhere in their dissent is there any indication that the WLAD was bad law or that BNSF had the right to medically screen job applicants as they saw fit.
 
Whether obesity should be included as a disability, and therefore protected from discrimination, is similar to the debate over whether discrimination on the basis of sex includes sexual orientation and gender identity. Federal agencies and courts are currently split on the issue. The Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) argues one way, and the Justice Department argues otherwise. The U.S. Courts of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and the Second Circuit have ruled one way, and the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eleventh Circuit has ruled to the contrary. The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hear three cases and settle the matter.
 
The real question here is not what constitutes obesity, what constitutes a disability, or whether obesity is a disability. The real question here is whether laws that prohibit discrimination in employment are just laws.
 
Liberals generally favor any and all anti-discrimination laws. Conservatives are woefully inconsistent. Although they oppose some anti-discrimination laws, they generally support laws against discrimination based on race, religion, national origin, color, age, or sex (narrowly defined). Liberal are consistent, but that doesn’t mean that they’re right.
 
What, then, do libertarians say about the subject of discrimination? The libertarian position on discrimination is simply this:
 
Since discrimination against anyone, on any basis, and for any reason is not aggression, force, coercion, threat, or violence, the government should never prohibit it, seek to prevent it, or punish anyone for doing it.
 
Now, of course, that doesn’t mean that any or all acts of discrimination are necessary, justified, or fair. It just means that, as far as the law is concerned, whether an act of discrimination is based on stereotypes or prejudices is irrelevant, whether an act of discrimination is due to racism or sexism is immaterial, whether an act of discrimination is thought to be unfair or nonsensical is of no consequence, and whether an act of discrimination is unreasonable or irrational is neither here nor there.
 
Employers should have the right to discriminate against applicants on the basis of obesity for the simple reason that they should have the right to discriminate against applicants on the basis of disability. That is because they should have the right to discriminate against applicants on the basis of any medical condition, seen or unseen. But that’s not all: employers should have the right to discriminate against applicants on the basis of height, weight, age, scars, facial hair, race, color, complexion, tattoos, hair color, hairstyle, piercings, dress, or anything else related to appearance. That is because employers should have the right to discriminate against applicants for any reason and on any basis.
 
To prohibit discrimination in employment is to infringe upon freedom of association, freedom of thought, private property, free enterprise, and the free market. All anti-discrimination laws should be repealed, regarding employment or anything else.
 
Originally published by the Future of Freedom Foundation.
 
Author:

Laurence M. Vance is an Associated Scholar of the Mises Institute, columnist and policy adviser for the Future of Freedom Foundation, and a columnist, blogger, and book reviewer at LewRockwell.com.

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How "Meaningless Words" Create the Narrative | Jeff Deist




<프로파간다>라는 책을 쓴 오스트리아 출신의 

Edward Bernays를 다룬다.  1928년 쓴 이 책에는 벌써 선전을 통한  현대 사회의 조작을 깊이 있게 다루고 있다. 


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 문재인 정권의 지소미아 파기를 국민혁명으로 저지하자
       대한민국수호예비역장성단 (2019.11.21.  ☎ 02-541-3700)
문재인 정권은 다수 국민이 반대하고 미국이 만류하는 한일 군사정보보호협정(지소미아)을 기어이 파기함으로써 북한과 중국이 원하는 대로 대한민국을 공산국가로 편입하려는 수순을 밟고 있다. 문재인 정권을 이대로 더 방치한다면 자유 대한민국은 지구상에서 사라지고, 국민의 반은 숙청의 대상과 보트 피플로, 나머지 반은 개・돼지의 삶을 살아야 할 것이다.
문재인 정권은 그동안 대한민국의 안보를 꾸준히 파괴하여 왔으며, 지소미아 파기는 그들의 음흉한 속셈을 만천하에 드러내는 비상시국의 출발이다. 군사주권의 포기인 중국에 대한 3不 약속, 사드기지 운용 반대와 비협조, 한미연합훈련 축소와 중단 및 항복 수준의 9.19 남북군사분야합의서 체결에 이은 지소미아 파기는 친중・종북 세력들이 그들의 공산화 음모를 실천에 옮기는 반국가적 행위이다.
문재인 정권은 지소미아 의미를 한・일간 군사정보를 교류하는 수준으로 격하시키면서 파기를 정당화하고 있다. 이는 그들이 우리 국민을 눈가리개 씌우고 포승줄로 꽁꽁 묶어서 북한으로 던져 버리는 것과 조금도 다를 바가 없다. 벌써 주한미군 1개 여단 철수가 거론되고 있고, 뒤이어 방위비 분담금 협상 결렬, 주한미군 철수, 국가 신용등급의 급속한 하락 등 그렇지 않아도 하향곡선을 그리고 있는 한국 경제는 이제 끝 모를 낭떠러지로 굴러 떨어질 것이다. (발췌)
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김문수
 황교안 대표가 1. GSOMIA 유지 2. 공수처법 반대 3. 연동형비례대표제 선거법 개정 반대를
  내걸고 청와대 앞에서 무기한 단식농성을 시작했습니다. 강기정 청와대 정무수석이 농성현장으로 달려와서 수습을 시도하기도 했습니다.
  추운 날씨에 단식농성을 시작했는데, 빨리 좋은 성과를 거두려면, 청와대 앞에서 전광훈 목사와 손잡고 싸우는 게 더 좋을 텐데, 국회의원들에게 이끌려 국회 앞으로 물러났습니다.
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윤다니엘    2019-11-21 오전 12:35
황대표가 청와대 앞 단식투쟁장에 나타나 전광훈목사님과 김문수전지사의 환영을 받았는데, 조금 후에 보니까 한국당 당직자들에게 거의 반강제로 끌려서 나가는 모습이 지금도 도무지 이해가 가지 않는다.

어제는 대통령 단독면담신청, 거절당하니까, 오늘 느닷없이 목숨건 단식투쟁한다고 청와대 앞에 나타나 '앞으로 이곳에서 여러분과 같이 투쟁하겠다고'선언해놓고, 느닷없이 사라졌다가, 국회앞 텐트 안에 앉아있네?!

청와대가 불허함으로 국회 앞으로 옮겼다고 한다. 준법정신이 그렇게도 투철하다면, 청와대 앞에는 나오지 말든지, 도무지 이분의 처신이 왜 이렇게 오락가락하는지 알 수가 없고 허탈하고 불쾌하기조차하다.

이제보니 처음부터 이분은 오락가락 뒤통수나 치면서, 정치감각이 제로인 무능한 사람이었나 보다. 대표를 끌고가는 당직자들 보니, 한국당 참 걱정된다. 차라리 창당하는 것이 스트레스 적게 받겠다.

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb인증된 계정 
MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State & Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek "identity" was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called "Olympic", Acropolis, wd have been "Agios Nikolaos", "Ag. Dimitrios", "Aya Pelagia"

그리스 민족 국가가 형성되기 전에, 그리스의 "정체성"은 고전적 그리스가 아니라, 그리스 정교회를 중심으로 만들어졌다.
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Nassim Nicholas Taleb인증된 계정 
Napoleon wanted power & glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed "code Napoléon". The world is run according to C. Gabish?

나폴레옹은 권력과 영광을 원했고, 일시적인 승리에 도취했다.

나폴레옹 법전을 쓴 캉바세레스는 영향력을 원했다. 나폴레옹

은 모든 것을 잃었지만, 세상 사람들은 캉바세레스가 쓴 나폴

레옹 법전을 사용하고 있다.

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당파적인 의견은, 다른 당파적 의견과 비교할 필요도 없이, 그 자체로 무가치하다.
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Rachel Thomas
자신들이 객관적이라는 환상을 갖고 있기 때문에, 과학자들
은 가장 위험한 사람들이다.
--->과학자들은 자신들이 이익과 선입관과 편견으로부터 완전히 자유로울 수 있을까? 예수나 석가모니 정도의 성인이 아니라면, 그렇지 않을 것이다. 그렇다면 그들만이 객관적인 진실을 독점한다고 헛소리하지 말아야 한다.
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역사의 종말은 없고, 완전한 존재도 없다.
이상 사회에서는 역사가 있을 수 없다
역사란 변화의 기록이기 때문이다.
살아 있는 인간은 절대 완벽과 균형의 상태에 이르지 않는다.
 
There Is No End to History, No Perfect Existence
 
Ludwig von Mises
 
All doctrines that have sought to discover in the course of human history some definite trend in the sequence of changes have disagreed, in reference to the past, with the historically established facts and where they tried to predict the future have been spectacularly proved wrong by later events.
 
Most of these doctrines were characterized by reference to a state of perfection in human affairs. They placed this perfect state either at the beginning of history or at its end or at both its beginning and its end. Consequently, history appeared in their interpretation as a progressive deterioration or a progressive improvement or as a period of progressive deterioration to be followed by one of progressive improvement. With some of these doctrines the idea of a perfect state was rooted in religious beliefs and dogmas. However, it is not the task of secular science to enter into an analysis of these theological aspects of the matter.
 
It is obvious that in a perfect state of human affairs there cannot be any history. History is the record of changes. But the very concept of perfection implies the absence of any change, as a perfect state can only be transformed into a less perfect state i.e., can only be impaired by any alteration. If one places the state of perfection only at the supposed beginning of history, one asserts that the age of history was preceded by an age in which there was no history and that one day some events which disturbed the perfection of this original age inaugurated the age of history. If one assumes that history tends toward the realization of a perfect state, one asserts that history will one day come to an end.
 
It is man's nature to strive ceaselessly after the substitution of more satisfactory conditions for less satisfactory. This motive stimulates his mental energies and prompts him to act. Life in a perfect frame would reduce man to a purely vegetative existence.
 
History did not begin with a golden age. The conditions under which primitive man lived appear in the eyes of later ages rather unsatisfactory. He was surrounded by innumerable dangers that do not threaten civilized man at all, or at least not to the same degree. Compared with later generations, he was extremely poor and barbaric. He would have been delighted if opportunity had been given to him to take advantage of any of the achievements of our age, as for instance the methods of healing wounds.
 
Neither can mankind ever reach a state of perfection. The idea that a state of aimlessness and indifference is desirable and the most happy condition that mankind could ever attain permeates utopian literature. The authors of these plans depict a society in which no further changes are required because everything has reached the best possible form.
 
In utopia there will no longer be any reason to strive for improvement, because everything is already perfect; history has been brought to a close. Henceforth, all people will be thoroughly happy. It never occurred to one of these writers that those whom they were eager to benefit by the reform might have different opinions about what is desirable and what not.
 
A new sophisticated version of the image of the perfect society has arisen lately out of a crass misinterpretation of the procedure of economics. In order to deal with the effects of changes in the market situation, the endeavors to adjust production to these changes, and the phenomena of profit and loss, the economist constructs the image of a hypothetical, although unattainable, state of affairs in which production is always fully adjusted to the realizable wishes of the consumers and no further changes whatever occur.
 
In this imaginary world tomorrow does not differ from today, no maladjustments can arise, and no need for any entrepreneurial action emerges. The conduct of business does not require any initiative; it is a self-acting process unconsciously performed by automatons impelled by mysterious quasi instincts. There is for economists (and, for that matter, also for laymen discussing economic issues) no other way to conceive what is going on in the real, continually changing world than to contrast it in this way with a fictitious world of stability and absence of change.
 
But the economists are fully aware that the elaboration of this image of an evenly rotating economy is merely a mental tool that has no counterpart in the real world in which man lives and is called to act. They did not even suspect that anybody could fail to grasp the merely hypothetical and ancillary character of their concept.
 
Yet some people misunderstood the meaning and significance of this mental tool. In a metaphor borrowed from the theory of mechanics, the mathematical economists call the evenly rotating economy the static state, the conditions prevailing in it equilibrium, and any deviation from equilibrium disequilibrium. This language suggests that there is something vicious in the very fact that there is always disequilibrium in the real economy and that the state of equilibrium never becomes actual.
 
The merely imagined hypothetical state of undisturbed equilibrium appears as the most desirable state of reality. In this sense some authors call competition as it prevails in the changing economy imperfect competition. The truth is that competition can exist only in a changing economy. Its function is precisely to wipe out disequilibrium and to generate a tendency toward the attainment of equilibrium. There cannot be any competition in a state of static equilibrium because in such a state there is no point at which a competitor could interfere in order to perform something that satisfies the consumers better than what is already performed anyway.
 
The very definition of equilibrium implies that there is no maladjustment anywhere in the economic system, and consequently no need for any action to wipe out maladjustments, no entrepreneurial activity, no entrepreneurial profits and losses. It is precisely the absence of the profits that prompts mathematical economists to consider the state of undisturbed static equilibrium as the ideal state, for they are inspired by the prepossession that entrepreneurs are useless parasites and profits are unfair lucre.
 
The equilibrium enthusiasts are also deluded by ambiguous thymological connotations of the term "equilibrium," which of course have no reference whatever to the way in which economics employs the imaginary construction of a state of equilibrium. The popular notion of a man's mental equilibrium is vague and cannot be particularized without including arbitrary judgments of value. All that can be said about such a state of mental or moral equilibrium is that it cannot prompt a man toward any action. For action presupposes some uneasiness felt, as its only aim can be the removal of uneasiness.
 
The analogy with the state of perfection is obvious. The fully satisfied individual is purposeless, he does not act, he has no incentive to think, he spends his days in leisurely enjoyment of life. Whether such a fairy-like existence is desirable may be left undecided. It is certain that living men can never attain such a state of perfection and equilibrium.
 
It is no less certain that, sorely tried by the imperfections of real life, people will dream of such a thorough fulfillment of all their wishes. This explains the sources of the emotional praise of equilibrium and condemnation of disequilibrium. However, economists must not confuse this thymological notion of equilibrium with the use of the imaginary construction of a static economy. The only service that this imaginary construction renders is to set off in sharp relief the ceaseless striving of living and acting men after the best possible improvement of their conditions. There is for the unaffected scientific observer nothing objectionable in his description of disequilibrium. It is only the passionate prosocialist zeal of mathematical pseudoeconomists that transforms a purely analytical tool of logical economics into an utopian image of the good and most desirable state of affairs.
 
[This article is excerpted from chapter 16 of Theory and History (1957).]

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시장의 불안정보다 정부 정책의 불안정이 더 나쁘다.
좌파들은 사회가 단일한 계획 없이 굴러가는지 의아해했다. 아니다 시장 경제는 실제로는 계획되고 있다. 단지 중앙 계획자가 없을 뿐이다. 사회에서는 수십 수백만의 개인들이 그들 각자의 계획을 세우고 그에 따라 사업도 하고 자선도 베풀고 기타 조직도 운영한다.
돈으로 무엇인가를 계획하고 결정하는데 가장 적합한 사람들은 정부 관료들이 아니라 사업을 벌이기 위해 작은 계획들을 세우는 시장의 사람들이다.
 
The Instability of Markets Is Not Nearly as Bad as the Instability of Government Policy
 
Antony Sammeroff
 
A seductive (if poorly considered) critique of markets is the notion that they are so wildly unpredictable and inherently unstable that we need government to watch over them and intervene to mitigate their excesses. There is a great irony in this position which I will reveal.
 
Economist John Maynard Keynes (18831946) made perhaps the most famous case for this view, coining the term "animal spirits" to describe the irrational, impulse-driven whims of market-actors based on arbitrary expectations that could only cause instability. The idea itself seems to make sense because it's hard for intellectuals, who love chewing over ideas and coming up with bright plans, to see how a society could run coherently without a single plan. The truth is, market economies are actually planned there is just no central plan. What happens on a market is that lots of individuals make little plans to roll out their bright ideas into businesses, charities, and other organizations, hoping to influence as many people as possible. The plans which prove successful on the small scale attract resources and grow steadily in their impact. Other planners emulate them and adapt their own plans in light of their success. Meanwhile, those plans which prove to be failures never get far off the ground.
 
This means that, left to their own devices, markets have their own self-correcting mechanisms which Keynes appeared to have overlooked. While in any situation there may be entrepreneurs, investors, and consumers who do indeed make poor or irrational decisions and make mistakes (driven by their animal spirits) there will always be others who succeed as well. The mechanism of profit and loss allocates the pool of available capital to those producers who make good predictions as to what consumers (you and I) want over the long term and reallocate them away from those who use them badly. This limits the scope of damage caused by bad or incompetent decision-makers. Where people fail, the results of those failures will be limited to some small number of people. This can not be said of failures of government which might extend to affecting the entire society.
 
Now, here's the irony. Even allowing for Keynes his hypothesis that markets are inherently unstable, how can the prospect of intervention by government, at any time, into the economy do anything but make the market more unpredictable and make it more difficult for the "little planners" to make long-term decisions? Over the course of 20 years a government could change five or more times. With each change in administration the form of state intervention in the economy can change dramatically, as can the political philosophy driving it. Plans can be added or scrapped at any time. Government can increase or reduce taxes at whim, or increase or decrease spending. They can pass new tariffs, grant subsidies, institute licensing laws and regulations or scrap them. Government-mandated central banks (like the Bank of England or the Federal Reserve) can increase or decrease interest rates; expand the money supply or contract it. Plus what makes those calm and virtuous actors themselves immune to the influences of the animal spirits? Do they not too have emotional whims, not to mention voters and campaign contributors to please?
 
Yes, when the specter of government hangs looming over the economy conditions can rapidly and unpredictably change at any time, in countless ways, and this can only exacerbate the problem that the Keynesians plan to solve. Economist Robert Higgs called this the phenomenon of "Regime Uncertainty," where investors fear it may be hard or even impossible to foresee the extent to which future government actions will alter the "rules to the game." As a result, investors become averse to taking risk (much in the way that Keynes feared they might) not due to a lack of government intervention but in anticipation of it!
 
Private investors have "skin in the game." Their own self-interest should motivate them to only take certain risks of personal loss, and investigate all the available information to make robust decisions. But public servants are forever fated to spending other peoples money on other people. The best people at making decisions with money are most likely not in government. They're probably out there in the free market making "Little Plans" to launch a new business or product that might one day spread out to the furthest reaches of the earth the way mobile phones are now reaching the world's poorest populations in Africa.
 
Antony Sammeroff
 
Antony Sammeroff co-hosts the Scottish Liberty Podcast and has featured prominently on other libertarian themed shows including The Tom Woods Show, Lions of Liberty, School Sucks Podcast and many more

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