[Why Times 정세분석 759] 중국은 북한을 포기했다! 이유는? (2021.4.6) https://youtu.be/-_k3X2Ifgxg --->오늘 북한에서 고난의 행군이 다시 시작되었다는 뉴스가 나왔다. 중국이 북한을 포기했다는 또다른 징후? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 한국일보 정부 "상황 호전 안 되면 '오후 9시 통금' 즉시 부활" --->코로나 독재 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 이번 사전선거가 부정선거인게 숫자에 보인다. 일베장학생 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11335023612 가사 원문 -> 박영선, 25개 자치구 모두 졌어도 사전투표에선 종로 등 11곳 승리 (naver.com) 이 기사에 나온 투표수를 분석하면 본투표가 64 : 36인데 사전투표가 52 : 47이나와서 최종 결과가 59 : 40 이라는거 아녀 최종결과와 사전투표를 비교하지 말고 본투표와 사전투표를 비교 해봐 64:36 vs 52:47 어떻게 본투표 민심이 2:1 인데 사전투표 민심이 1:1이 될수가 있냐? 말이 되야 모집단이랑 차이가 날이유가 없어졌쟌어 이젠. 왜냐 젊은 사람 민심이 돌아섰는데 사전투표에 민주당이 반반이라고???? 근데 왜 이렇게 결과가 나오냐고 얼마나 어처구니 없는 결과인지 통계학적으로 유의미 0이다 결국 이번에도 사전투표의 약 15% 정도를 오세훈 표가 박영선에게 가게 셋팅 했음. (셋팅 값은 저번 보다 좀 줄인듯 민심도 있고 해서) 다만 너무 민심이 압도적이라 오세훈이 이겼을뿐 이건 민심이 박빙이면 무조건 민주당이 이기게 되있는 매트릭스임. 대선, 지선 앞으로도 마찬가지이다. 국민의 힘은 이겼다고 자만 말고 대책을 세워야해 국민의 힘이 이걸 무시한다면 젊은 시민들이 나서서 이걸 막을 방법을 연구하고 대책을 세워야한다. 애들아 가세연에 제보도 좀 부탁하고 글좀 통계학적으로 더 다듬어서 커뮤니티에 좀 뿌려다오 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When Will Liberals Reclaim Free Speech? My fellow liberals in academia have abandoned ‘the great moral renovator of society and government.’ By Jonathan Zimmerman 리버럴(좌파)들은 언제 언론 자유를 다시 되찾자고 할까? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Wisdom in the young is as unattractive as frivolity in the elderly." - @nntaleb 노인들에게 경박함이 그러하듯이, 청년들에게는 지혜가 그리 매력적이지 못하다. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 자본주의의 문화적 기초가 먼저 있어야 한다. 개도국에서 자본주의가 작동하기 위해서는 적절한 문화적 자산이 바탕이 되어야 한다. 개도국에서 자본주의의 발전을 저해하는 한 가지 요소는 바로 신뢰의 결핍이다. 사유재산을 보호하는 제도가 취약한 개도국의 주민들은, 부의 축적이 제로섬 게임이고, 기업가들은 사람들을 착취해서 성공한다고 믿는 경향이 있다. 기업들이 비대칭 정보를 악용하게 되면 시민들은 정부의 개입을 요구하게 된다. 개도국은 부패가 만연한 탓에, 시민들은 또 그 부패를 막기 위해서 정부의 개입을 옹호하게 된다. 문화를 무시한 채 서구의 전문가들이 개도국에 서구의 제도를 복제하려고 하면, 그들은 자본주의에 대한 경멸을 만드는 데만 성공할 것이다. Trust, Corruption, and the Cultural Foundations of Capitalism Lipton Matthews Economists promote free market capitalism as the most advantageous system for human development. Notwithstanding the popularity of their rhetoric, capitalism remains a derisive term in the developing world. Transplanting promarket institutions to developing countries has failed to generate widespread support for capitalism. For capitalism to work in the developing world it must be aided by the right cultural infrastructure. One obstacle to the growth of capitalism in the developing world is the paucity of trust. Trust makes it easier to do business by lowering transaction costs. When entrepreneurs trust each other, they are likely to collaborate and reap the fruits of innovation. In a trusting environment, businesspeople form lucrative deals before signing a contract, knowing that both parties will comply with the agreement. For instance, Macauley (1963) argues that entrepreneurs rarely depend on legal enforcement to solve disputes and in many cases actually fail to create contracts stipulating conditions with customers. Institutions to protect property rights are weak or nonexistent in developing countries. The deficiency of such institutions limits one’s ability to create wealth and results in people thinking that wealth formation is a zero-sum game. As such, residents in developing countries are inclined to believe that entrepreneurs obtain their success by exploiting other people. People in the developing world, therefore, confuse capitalism with rent seeking. Hence building Western institutions in developing countries without changing the popular understanding of capitalism is unlikely to yield promising results. For example, according to Graafland (2019) free market institutions foster development only in high-trust countries, not in low-trust societies. Promarket institutions provide the tools for cooperation, but when people are skeptical of each other, they might be unwilling to cooperate. A case in point is the refusal of researchers to apply for grant funding because they assume that the foundation may illicitly appropriate their ideas. Unless confidence is reposed in institutions, they will be ineffective. Clearly, cultural reform is crucial for the receptivity toward capitalism in the developing world, as Graafland observes: Countries with high economic freedom and low trust should pay more attention to the development of virtues in business life. If individuals are intrinsically motivated to have concern for others’ wellbeing, then they are less inclined to make use of opportunities to break agreements and benefit financially. If policymakers liberalize their economy in a situation of low trust, institutional misalignments emerge. The improved formal framework will then not generate the economic benefits that people expect from them, as a lack of cultural values might hamper entrepreneurial actions. Virtuousness in economic actors is therefore an important condition for societal acceptance of free markets. If companies cannot be trusted, society expects that more negative externalities will result from free market operations and support for free market operations decreases. If citizens come to expect higher risks and costs because companies develop unfair practices by abusing information asymmetry, citizens will support more government regulation. Similarly, politics, like culture, can deter the acceptance of capitalism in developing countries. Rafael Di Tella and Robert MacCulloch in their paper “Why Doesn’t Capitalism Flow to Poor Countries?” contend that governments in poor countries “have a more left-wing rhetoric than those in OECD countries.” They submit that a possible explanation for this development is that “corruption, which is more widespread in poor countries, reduces more the electoral appeal of capitalism than that of socialism.” Due to the prevalence of corruption in developing countries, citizens are motivated to advocate government intervention as a strategy to curb corrupt activities. Invariably, rampant corruption adversely affects the perception of capitalism and undermines confidence in promarket institutions. Using statistical methods, Di Tella and MacCulloch show empirically that there is a negative correlation between a country’s aggregate level of corruption and the rightward orientation of the government in later years. They also argue that perception of corruption influences the demand for government intervention: We show that people who think that corruption amongst public officials is widespread in the country tend to report themselves on the left of the political spectrum…. We partition ideology into economic and non-economic attributes of ideology, and document their correlation with perceptions of corruption. People who perceive there to be widespread corruption also tend to think that the government is doing too little to fight poverty or to think that the government should run firms. Exporting capitalism to developing countries without aiming to reform the political and cultural climate is an exercise in futility. When experts attempt to replicate Western institutions in the developing world by ignoring the primacy of cultural values, they only succeed in generating contempt for capitalism. Indeed, capitalism can flow to developing countries, if they overcome cultural obstacles. Lipton Matthews is a researcher, business analyst, and contributor to Merion West, The Federalist, American Thinker, Intellectual Takeout, mises.org, and Imaginative Conservative. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------