조선일보 文 “세월호 아직도 이유 못밝혀”…친여 사이트도 “그동안 뭐했나” cnt0**** 쑈로 시작해서 쑈로 끝나는 정권이구나 ᆢ 세월호 감성팔이도 쑈였구나 ᆢ 5년동안 뭐했는지 ᆢ 결국은 모든게 ᆢ쑈 ᆢ 정말 노래가사처럼 쑈는 끝이 없나보네 ᆢ쑈쑈쑈 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 네덜란드 Marin 연구소에서 발표된 세월호 침몰 조사결과 임청하 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11408877870 1.MARIN 해양연구소에서 2020년에 연구 조사 발표를 함. 2.제일 중요한건 2만6천톤의 외부 충격이 있어야 세월호 급방향 궤적이 만들어지는데 3.그럼 그 충격으로 세월호 스테빌라이저가 망가져 있어야 함 하지만 그런 훼손이 없고 4.그만한 충격을 가해봤지만 세월호 사건전의 궤적이 안나옴. 그래서 그 가설은 나가리 시켰음. 결론 화물 과적 + 평형수 뺀거 + 조타수 자질 = 배 기울어짐 다마스 자빠지듯이 급회전하다 넘어진거.. https://www.marin.nl/en/publications/sewol-ferry-capsizing-and-flooding 자유연금술사/ 일베 댓글 가장 쉽게 설명해주게 선박 규칙에 정해진 최소 무게중심이 있음. 예를 들어 메시 같은경우에 키가 작아서 무게중심이 낮기때문에 잘 안넘어짐. 즉 무게 중식이 낮을수록 오뚜기처럼 잘 일어선다는 이야기이고 배에 적용되는 이야기임. 기울어져도 바로 일어섬 이것만 지키면 좌우 180도씩 막 돌려도 절대 배가 안뒤집어지게끔 되어있고 여객선의 경우는 더 엄격함 배를 다 만들고 나면 시운전이라는걸 나가서 배를 테스트하는데 여기서 지그재그 테스트를 하고 180도씩 여러번 핸들 돌려서 궤적 확인함 세월호 같은 경우에는 돈을 벌려고 무게중심을 낮춰주는 아래쪽에 위치한 선박평형수를 빼고 위쪽에 짐을 실으니 무게 중심이 올라가고 화물 고박도 안해서 기울어지자 그 화물들이 더 기울어지게 만들어 배가 전복한거임 선장이 초보 조타수에게 핸들 급격하게 틀지 말라고 하고 방에서 여자랑 놀고 있었는데 조타수가 타를 급격하게 돌리면서 배가 뒤집어 진거임. 즉 선장도 무게중심 낮게 잡는 규칙 자체를 무시하고 짐을 실은게 근본적인 원인 급격하게 돌린다고 배가 뒤집어 지면 절대 안됨. 180도 왔다갔다 100번해도 안뒤집지게 되있는게 선박이고 가장 엄격한게 여객선 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 세계일보 문재인 정권 수사 막으려? 민주, ‘검수완박’ 소급적용까지 담아 검수완박 법개정안 결국 밀어붙인다 檢, 6대 범죄 손 떼고 보완 수사 불가 공포후 3달 유예… 탈원전 수사 영향 대검 “위헌… 힘 있는 범죄자만 안도” 민주, 28일 본회의서 처리 방침 밝혀 박병석 국회의장 해외순방이 변수로 한동훈, “민주당의 야반도주극” 맹폭 국힘은 “文이 거부권 행사해야” 압박 권성동, 박홍근에 ‘공개토론’ 또 제안 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 금본위제로의 환원만이 현재의 경제적 문제를 해결할 수 있다 고전적인 금본위제는 중앙은행이 일정 화폐 단위와 금의 일정 중량을 서로 사고파는 과정을 통해 나타난다. 케인스는 란 책자를 통해 미국과 영국이 야만적인 유산인 금본위제를 폐기하라고 촉구했다. 책이 출판 된 후 수십 여년 후에는 전세계의 모든 나라들이 그의 조언을 따랐다. 하지만 케인스의 조언대로 실행했지만, 그가 공언한 경제적 안정, 완전 고용 같은 혜택은 하나도 현실화 되지 않았다. 금본위제의 가장 보편적인 이점은 인플레가 극히 낮다는 점이다. 1880년에서 1914년은 고전적 금본위제가 시행된 시기인데, 이 기간의 인플레는 거의 제로에 가깝다. 금본위제에서는 상업은행이나 중앙은행이 화폐를 증발하면 그것은 은행의 도산이나 보유 금의 해외 유출 등의 부작용이 있어서, 절대 함부로 시도할 수가 없다. 금본위제는 정부가 인플레 정책 등 엉터리 수작을 하지 못하도록 하는 이점이 잇다. 고전적 금본위제로 환원한다면 만성적 인플레와 자원의 부적절한 배분, 불황과 호경기의 순환 등을 모두 날려버릴 수가 있다. Is There a Case for the Pre-1914 Gold Standard? Yes, if You Believe Inflation is a Bad Thing Vibhu Vikramaditya The Russian central bank recently announced that it will stop buying gold at a fixed rate and will instead buy them at the negotiated rate from banks. Following the numerous sanctions which were imposed on Russia. The Ruble had fallen tremendously against the US dollar, to get out of such a situation it had announced that it would buy gold at a fixed price of 5,000 rubles a gram until June 30. Since that announcement, the ruble has strengthened sharply against the dollar for over one month. Five thousand rubles was worth around $52 on March 25 and around $63 on Thursday. The mechanism which led to the increase was to allow the markets to play themselves out, in order to combat sanctions, they asked the nations to transact in their currency which, due to the extensive and growing array of sanctions by the western front, was becoming devalued by each day. It was here, by demanding payment in rubles, are attempting to increase demand for their currency which led to its increase where being pegged to hard currency allowed the confidence of the markets to increase so ruble wasn’t dumped extensively But because once you allow for sound money such as gold pegged to your currency which is dictated by the effective allocating mechanism of the market you cannot ignore the market valuation any longer, therefore the bounce-back and effective strengthening of the ruble which took place more and earlier than expected has now forced them to abandon the fixed-rate currency and move towards a more flexible exchange rate mechanism which would allow them to set the rates effectively in line with the motivation of sellers while discounting for factors such as immediacy, global credit standing and the turns of the global economy. A classical gold standard requires the central bank to exchange by the process of both purchasing and selling gold and the national currency for each other and to do so according to a fixed weight or quantity of gold per unit of currency. Thus, while neither the pegged currency nor the negotiated rates of exchange comprise the classical gold standard, they nonetheless serve as a great case study into the commendatory effects of having hard money serving as the medium of change in the economy. In the much-celebrated book of his time, Tract on Monetary Reform, economist John Maynard Keynes urged the United States and Great Britain to abandon the gold standard, calling it a “barbarous relic.” In the decades that followed the book’s publication, countries around the globe heeded Keynes’ advice and relegated the gold standard to the dust bin. It is one of the great historical ironies that almost every advice of from Keynes was taken up by the world in the latter half of the 20th century and that none of the supposed benefits of stability, full employment have come to fruition. The Problem of Gold standard in the Keynesian system Keynes’s dictum on the gold standard has become the fountainhead of claims against a return back to the gold standard. Keynes in his analysis found the gold standard to be a barbarous relic of the past that was unscientific and unfit to meet the demands of a modern world. It is his arguments against the gold standard which have been repeated time and again, thus they serve as an excellent case for demonstration as to why the gold standard is superior based on the very allegations which are leveled against it. Inflation and Gold standard He wrote in his tract on monetary reform about the ills of inflation “ Inflation redistributes wealth…. Its most striking consequence is its injustice to those who in good faith have committed their savings to titles to money rather than to things…. Injustice on such a scale has further consequences…. Inflation has… destroyed the atmosphere of confidence which is a condition of the willingness to save…. Reading this one might form the opinion that the author of such lines might be highly unsavory and unscrupulous towards a monetary regime which causes destruction of the price mechanism and people’s stored up wealth through the artificial increase in prices but unfortunately one cannot do so without committing a grave error as both instances in modern history when prices have run amok namely the stagflation of the 70s and the massive rise in prices of around 10% today are both a result of Keynesian economics. The most widely recognized virtue of the historical gold standard is its low average inflation rate. The rate of inflation was lowest, on average, under the gold standard when compared with the Bretton woods system of a pegged dollar and fluctuating system of fiat dollar reserve. (p. 30). This was the era of the classical gold standard which lasted from 1880 to 1914, Inflation over this time period, while it fluctuated on a year-to-year basis, was virtually zero, and as a result, prices whose proper role lies in giving signals about market scarcity ensured proper allocation of resources due to which real income per capita in the United States increased by over 60 percent in a generation and a half. This low inflation is not a coincidence but a direct effect that is to be expected when the money supply is bound to the supply of gold. While the central bank can create thousands of dollars out of thin air to increase the money supply with its high stock to flow ratio, gold has the lowest price elasticity of supply, which is calculated as the percentage increase in quantity provided over price rise. This implies the effects of the increased supply which would be prompted by increases in the price of gold through higher demand would be quite insignificant to cause changes in the absolute price level. For instance, the year 2006 witnessed a 36% rise in the spot price of gold. For any other commodity, this would be expected to increase mining output significantly to flood markets and bring the price down. Instead, annual production in 2006 was 2,370 tons, 100 tons less than in 2005, and it would drop a further 10 tons in 2007. (p. 34). With changes in money supply being largely unaffected by changes in prices of gold, the general rise in prices which are caused when the supply of money is greater than the demand to hold it doesn’t occur. An economy where price increases are not caused due to an increase in money supply experiences price rise as a function of scarcity based on underlying consumer preferences which lead entrepreneurs to allocate resources properly in line with consumer demand. Gold Standard and boom-bust cycles A fiduciary media such as paper currency or bank deposits which are effectively used as the medium of exchange which is redeemable in gold enjoys certain properties which create a mechanism whereby artificial increases in money supply are either discouraged or its effects are reversed. Suppose if commercial banks were to increase the supply of fiduciary media beyond what its coffers can handle, an increase in supply would first increase the cash balance holdings of its lenders who would when then start spending it on the various inputs of production thereby increasing its price, this increased price would accrue higher profits to the sellers of those inputs who would in-turn increase their output. The process where sellers of inputs increase their input would lead them to hire more labor and capital goods which in turn would put further inflationary pressures on wages and other consumer goods when the rise in input prices are materialized into higher consumer goods prices. Due to such an increase in prices, the goods of other economies would gain a competitive advantage over domestic ones which would lead to an increase in demand for gold to trade with other countries, as the demand for gold increases, the over-issued fiduciary media would find themselves back to banks who would then be put in dangers of bank runs and defaulting on their claim. This discipline of defaulting over time would root out banks that would have the habit of overissuing fiduciary media which is the source of an artificial unsustainable boom that eventually bursts and leads the economy towards a recession. The same restrictions apply to the central banks as well where they can’t run an easy money policy without running the risk of a run on their reserves, given if a central bank lowers its lending rate of interest on its gold reserves to commercial banks in order to create a boom. It would lead to capital outflows as investors would look to invest in countries where the interest rate is higher, this would mean that the demand for gold by investors to exchange it against foreign currency will increase. This outflow of gold reserves will decrease the quantity of money in the economy which will again lead to an increase in the rate of interest, therefore it not only means that the monetary policy would be rendered ineffective but also lead central banks to lose out on important gold reserves. The problems of the pseudo gold standard One of the greatest benefits of the gold standard lies in its ability to restrict and bind the hands of the government. This perhaps becomes most evident when one revisits the episodes of how the gold standard was one by one abandoned by all countries in line for preparation of war efforts of the first world war. Each country in order to build up reserves for arms and ammunition had to increase its defense spending which couldn’t take place under the restraining system which protects individual liberty. Once the war ended there were some attempts at coming back to the gold standard but since they were not based on the underlying dynamic of a market-based gold-currency exchange rate mechanism, it failed to restore the price stability and economic prosperity of the classical gold standard. Each of the countries that participated in the war thus spent huge amounts of money and had massively inflated their currencies, thus economic conditions had changed equilibrium exchange rates between national currencies, and hence gold parities should have been adjusted. If 1914 is taken as the base (= 100), wholesale prices in December 1918 were as follows: USA 202, France 355, UK 246. After the war in 1918, the USA immediately announced that it would maintain the dollar price of gold at its prewar level. That is, it is willing to export gold at $20.67 per ounce. It was thought that Britain's national honor was at stake. Failure to restore the prewar parity of the pound would undermine confidence in the pound. Accordingly, Britain resorted to a deflationary policy and restored the value of the pound to its pre-WW1 levels, this turned out to be a disaster for the British economy and other economies connected to it. Artificially lowering the value of the pound despite the increased money supply during the war period distorted the entire structure of prices whose role is to guide entrepreneurs, it could be compared to a situation wherein amid congestion of traffic, the signals reflect guidance for coordinating yesterday’s traffic. The USA was able to survive the artificial deflation on the account of its massive gold reserves which had grown during the war and the piling up of debt that countries owned to the United States. This allowed the USA to pursue an easy money policy which first sparked a temporary boom and then characteristically culminated in a bust. This mechanism was explained most adequately by Rothbard in his seminal work America’s Great Depression. Had the currencies been allowed to change as per a fixed weight of gold units per unit of currency, the picture may well have been different. Conclusion Keynes began his mission to enunciate his system of economics where the invisible hand of the market will be replaced by the visible hand of policymakers where an increase in government spending through the increase in aggregate demand as a result of the multiplier mechanism will provide full or near full employment. But before such a project could be undertaken, it was important to show why the gold standard fails to provide an order to the society as the foundations of his economic system relies on the fact that a country has independence in monetary and fiscal matters where it is not directly affected by the policies of other economies. There can be no such thing as a Keynesian state on the gold standard, any more than a cocaine addict or compulsive gambler can be on a strict budget. But now on the backs of substantial evidence and analysis, it becomes quite clear that not only was Keynes incorrect about the question of instability of the value of money and on the gold standard as a monetary system. A stronger case has also been made to show the classical gold standard is superior on every front and a return to the gold standard will cure several economic ills of inflation, improper allocation of resources, and a continuous cycle of booms and busts. This now calls into question a reevaluation of the entire foundation of the fiat money system along with the Keynesian worldview. Author: Vibhu Vikramaditya An economics and a libertarian scholar with research interests in capital theory, monetary theory, and business cycles, I write about events in the economy from a legal and economic standpoint with a proliberty outlook and believe that safeguarding the liberty and rights of each individual is the most important act toward peace, prosperity and growth. My other works can be found at the Austrian Economics Center, the Libertarian Institute, and beinglibetarian.com. I can be reached at Vibhu3333@gmail.com and on Twitter (@vibhu3333). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 고대 중국의 자유주의자들 우리가 잘 아는 노자와 장자에 대한 이야기다. 개인적으로도 예전에는 공자를 좋아하다가, 이제는 노자와 장자가 진정한 혁명가라는 생각이 든다. The Ancient Chinese Libertarian Tradition Murray N. Rothbard The first libertarian intellectual was Lao-tzu, the founder of Taoism. Little is known about his life, but apparently he was a personal acquaintance of Confucius in the late sixth century BC and like the latter came from the state of Sung and was descended from the lower aristocracy of the Yin dynasty. Unlike the notable apologist for the rule of philosopher-bureaucrats, however, Lao-tzu developed a radical libertarian creed. For Lao-tzu the individual and his happiness was the key unit and goal of society. If social institutions hampered the individual's flowering and his happiness, then those institutions should be reduced or abolished altogether. To the individualist Lao-tzu, government, with its "laws and regulations more numerous than the hairs of an ox," was a vicious oppressor of the individual, and "more to be feared than fierce tigers." Government, in sum, must be limited to the smallest possible minimum; "inaction" was the proper function of government, since only inaction can permit the individual to flourish and achieve happiness. Any intervention by government, Lao-tzu declared, would be counterproductive, and would lead to confusion and turmoil. After referring to the common experience of mankind with government, Lao-tzu came to this incisive conclusion: "The more artificial taboos and restrictions there are in the world, the more the people are impoverished…. The more that laws and regulations are given prominence, the more thieves and robbers there will be." The wisest course, then, is to keep the government simple and for it to take no action, for then the world "stabilizes itself." As Lao-tzu put it, "Therefore the Sage says: I take no action yet the people transform themselves, I favor quiescence and the people right themselves, I take no action and the people enrich themselves…." Lao-tzu arrived at his challenging and radical new insights in a world dominated by the power of Oriental despotism. What strategy to pursue for social change? It surely was unthinkable for Lao-tzu, with no available historical or contemporary example of libertarian social change, to set forth any optimistic strategy, let alone contemplate forming a mass movement to overthrow the State. And so Lao-tzu took the only strategic way out that seemed open to him, counseling the familiar Taoist path of withdrawal from society and the world, of retreat and inner contemplation. I submit that while contemporary Taoists advocate retreat from the world as a matter of religious or ideological principle, it is very possible that Lao-tzu called for retreat not as a principle, but as the only strategy that in his despair seemed open to him. If it was hopeless to try to disentangle society from the oppressive coils of the State, then he perhaps assumed that the proper course was to counsel withdrawal from society and the world as the only way to escape State tyranny. That retreat from the State was a dominant Taoist objective may be seen in the views of the great Taoist Chuang-tzu (369 BC–286 BC) who, two centuries after Lao-tzu, pushed the master's ideas of laissez faire to their logical conclusion: individualist anarchism. The influential Chuang-tzu, a notable stylist who wrote in allegorical parables, was a highly learned man in the state of Meng, and also descended from the old aristocracy. A minor official in his native state, Chuang-tzu's fame as a writer spread far and wide throughout China, so much so that King Wei of the Ch'u kingdom sent an emissary to Chuang bearing great gifts and urging him to become Wei's chief minister of state. Chuang-tzu's scornful rejection of the king's offer is one of the great declarations in history on the evils underlying the glittering trappings of State power; it was a fitting declaration from the man who was perhaps the world's first anarchist: A thousand ounces of gold is indeed a great reward, and the office of chief minister is truly an elevated position. But have you, sir, not seen the sacrificial ox awaiting the sacrifices at the royal shrine of state? It is well cared for and fed for a few years, caparisoned with rich brocades, so that it will be ready to be led into the Great Temple. At that moment, even though it would gladly change places with any solitary pig, can it do so? So, quick and be off with you! Don't sully me, I would rather roam and idle about in a muddy ditch, at my own amusement, than to be put under the restraints that the ruler would impose. I will never take any official service, and thereby I will satisfy my own purposes. Chuang-tzu reiterated and embellished Lao-tzu's devotion to laissez faire and opposition to state rule: "There has been such a thing as letting mankind alone; there has never been such a thing as governing mankind [with success]." In fact, the world simply "does not need governing; in fact it should not be governed." Chuang-tzu was also the first to work out the idea of "spontaneous order," developed particularly by Proudhon in the nineteenth and by F. A. Hayek of the Austrian School in the twentieth century: "Good order results spontaneously when things are let alone." Chuang-tzu, moreover, was perhaps the first theorist to see the State as a brigand writ large: "A petty thief is put in jail. A great brigand becomes a ruler of a State." Thus the only difference between State rulers and out-and-out robber chieftains is the size of their depredations. This theme of ruler-as-robber was to be repeated, independently of course, by Cicero and then by St. Augustine and other Christian thinkers in the Middle Ages. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------