한국정부, 남북의 평양 선언 비준이 국회의 동의가 필요하지 않다고 판단하다.

정부는 23일 국무회의를 열고 지난달 평양남북정상회담에서 채택한 공동선언과 남북군사합의서 비준안을 의결했다. 이날 국무회의 의결로 두 합의서는 국회 비준동의 절차 없이 법적효력을 갖게됐다. 군사분계선 일대에서의 비행금지와 지상에서의 훈련 중지 등 남북군사 합의안들은 오는 11월부터 시행된다. 

[출처] ((공산화 완료))평양선언 비준 '국회패싱'...정부 “동의 필요없어”

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좌파 혁명가들이 시민들을 재판하는 날이 오고 말았다.

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1. 국민연금 사태: 

- 무엇보다 가장 문제는 휴전국인 우리나라는 항상 전체 PER/PBR로 볼때 어느나라 지수보다도 평가절하받고 있다. 

 그 와중에 국가안보에 직격타를 받는 이슈들이 터지면서 당연히 지수는 아래로 흐르는거다. 

  (나스닥,닛케이도 떨어져? 웃기지마라 월봉차트로 비교라도 하고 얘기해라.)

- 수장으로 투자/경제/경영 문외한 호남인 낙하산배치.

- 국민연금 지방이전으로 핵심 브레인 인사들 대거 이탈 -> 몇분기째 공석.

- 서브프라임모기지사태 보다 악화된 1% 미만의 수익률. 세계 3대 연기금 중 하나인 한국국민연금으로 이런 수익율에 세계가 놀람.

- 연금수령시기 미루고, 수령액 줄이고, 연금원천징수액 늘린다. (최소9%~최대24%) 한마디로 월급 다 가져가겠다는 뜻.

- 스튜어드십. 국민들이 낸 연금액으로 경영/경제/기업살림 안해본 무경험 문외한들이 대기업 이사회에 가장 중요한 의결권을 행사하려함.

- 증시 살린다, 코스닥 살린다, 그런 소리 하더니, 정작 연기금이 외국인보다 더 팔았음. (국민은 장투하고, 지들은 단타치고? 이득은 누가보나? 숏세력이지.)

2. 원전사태:

- 전세계가 원전을 늘리고 기술을 앞서나가려 하지만, 이미 원전 기술 강국인 한국에서 영화 한 편 관람 후 탈원전을 선포. 

(그렇게 애정하는 북한도 좌빨들이 찬양하는 북유럽도 원전으로 가고자 희망함.)

- 매년 대한민국 캐시카우역할을 해왔던 한전과 한국원자력을 분기당 수천억원 적자로 만듬. (자원없는 한국이 매달 수입하는 에너지량 사상최고치 기록.)

- 지난 두 보수정권 때에 전력 사용 비율이 컸던 중공업/조선/선박/자동차/철강 등이 현재 불경기+다운사이클을 맞은 시점에도 불구하고 예비전력이 부족하여 최악의 폭염에 전국민이 누진세를 맞게됨. 

(누진세 폐지한다더니 말복까지 존버하더니 그 말 없어짐.)

- 영국과 중동 그리고 기타 유럽국가에 원전 수출을 못하게 되어 놓치게된 비용이 수조에서 십수조에 이름.

3. 대북사태: 

- 엎친데 덮친격으로 북한석탄 수십번에 걸쳐 밀반입으로 세컨더리 보이콧 대상으로 올라갈 수 있음. 

(JTBC손석희는 2016년 박근혜정권때도 석탄반입했다고 물타기를 했지만, 그 시기는 미국발 대북제제에서 석탄이 직접 포함되지 않았고 미국은 이걸 인지했음.)

- 원전 점진적 가동중단의 빈자리로서 석탄+태양광을 진행하였지만, 화력발전소 석탄은 북괴산, 국토 70% 이상이 산으로 형성된 대한민국에서 태양광은 천치같은 선택. (산사태와 폭우, 태풍에 취약.)

- 휴전국에서 북한이 CVID도 이행하지 않은 시국에 한국군은 기부사를 해체. 전방 GP, NLL, JSA, DMZ지뢰지대 까지 모든 국경지역에서 긴장완화.

- 북한이 회담에서 문재인 지지율 하락을 걱정하는 웃지못할 상황 발생.

- 석유 대북지원이 걸림.

- 남아돌아 문제던 식량이 급격히 고갈되어 쌀 값 연일 고공행진. (이유는?)

4. 일자리 사태:

- 세수와 추경을 합하여 54조 이상 그리고 내년엔 훨씬 더 증액된 세금을 투여할 계획. (대체 저 큰 돈이 어디로?)

- 그러나, 54조의 성적은 +5천명, 그것 역시 60대 이상의 저임금 노동자가 다수.

(양질의 20대~50대의 일자리는 건국이래 최저치이자 최악임. 30-40대의 재취업 및 취업율 또한 역대급으로 나쁨.)

- 이명박 4대강 22조 들먹이며, 고용창출하면 2200 연봉 100만명을 채용한다고 빼액하다가 54조 쓰고 5천명 늘어남. 박근혜와 고용성적 100배 차이.

(4대강 개발로 매년 홍수 및 가뭄 복구비용이 굳음. 그 금액만 연간 수천억~조단위.)

- 가장 문제는 옆나라 일본이 우리나라 인구의 2배이상 그리고 국토면적 또한 훨씬 크지만, 공무원 수는 전체 30만명.

한국은 이미 일본을 웃돌지만, 현재 혈세로 먹여살리는 공무원과 여기서 더 늘어날 증원이 일본을 훨씬 초과.

(일본이 시사프로에서 한국경제 걱정해주는 형국.)

5. 최저임금 및 노동법 규제 사태: 

최저임금이 8,350원, 주휴수당 포함 10,030원, 4대보험 포함, 12,000원 가까이 육박.

- 한국의 자영업자 수는 500만명이 넘는다. 그들 중 10에 9이 파산하는 추세로 가는 중.

- 고용자, 알바, 생산성, 손님 그 어떤 파티도 이득보지 못하는 정책.

(시급 늘어나니 물가상승, 브레이크타임문닫아손님불편, 가게망해손님불편, 주휴수당피하려최소시간제근무로 알바생 월급은 최종적으로 줄어듦. 숙련도미숙과 잦은 해고로 품질악화.)

- 주 52시간 근무제로 생산직 직원들 임금은 대폭 줄어듬. 게임,ICT,중공업,제조업,등 업종/업태를 안가리고 모두가 손해를 입는 중.

(대체 누구를 위한 법인가? 민노총?)

- 이제 대기업 취직이 어려운 세대에서, 취직이 어려운 세대로, 그리고 더 나아가다간 알바도 못하는 세대로 넘어가게 된다.

... 헥헥

6. 드루킹사태: 떠들석했던 사건이라 다들 알거라 본다... 최순실 국정농단? 웃기지도 마라 드루킹은 범죄 규모로 보면 훨씬 큰 범죄야.

7. 난민사태: 70만 청원에도 소용없다. 그저 PC충들과 국가 혼란을 야기시키는 현여당 그리고 문재앙 때문이다. 

8. 증세: 어떤 국가도 경제성장없이 증세가 감행되고, 인플레이션을 야기시켜 결국엔 '스테그플레이션' 상태를 만들은 국가는 성공하지 못하고 패망하였다.

9. 미세먼지: 공약 1순위 미세먼지 정책은 개나줘버리고 중국몽에 흠뻑 혀를 적신 문똥꼬와 손서키다.. 

소통없는 쇼통 뿐인 댓통령.

정작 너무나 중요한 국제사회와 소통, 국회와 소통, 내각과의 소통은 안되고.

쇼통으로 허허허, 임종석/장하성/조국/윤건영/송인배/이낙연 만끼고 문고리 소통중. 이자들은 운동권/비고시/호남출신

- 자기와 의견이 틀리거나 상대편은 무조건 적폐로 프레임 씌워 몰고가는 악질. (요즘엔, 본인들에게 불리한 정보는 가짜정보라 칭하고 입닫아버린다.)

(마치 오공시절 빨갱이 프레임이 연상됨.)

희대의 빨간 매국노들을 잊지말자.

문재인 임종석 장하성 조국 윤건영 송인배 이낙연 홍영표

이런 작금의 실태에 질려서 국가를 손절하여 시민권을 포기하는 엘리트들과 상류층이 급격하게 늘어나는 부분이다.

[출처] 눈물나는 한반도의 현재 상황

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실제로 조선총독부 재정 세입 세출 통계를 봐도, 세입에서 가장 큰 비중을 차지하는 게 

일본중앙정부로부터 삥 뜯어온 '공채차입금'과 '보충금'이다.

 

이것을 제외한 세입 수준은 일본통치기를 전부 통틀어 '적자' 마이너스 에 가까웠다.

 

실제로 조선총독부 재정 운용을 연구한 논문을 한번 살펴보자.

 

$$$$$$$$$ 요약 $$$$$$$$$$$$

 

조선총독부는 반도를 통치하면서

 

운영비가 모잘라 일본중앙정부의 세비를 쏟아부었다.

 

그 돈으로 교통, 항만, 철도, 공업 등에 투자하는 등 손해만 보다

 

미국에게 패망하고 반도를 떠났다. 이상으로 좆본의 개병신짓거리였음.

 

[출처] 일제 패망의 날, 조선총독부가 후회한 이유/ 일베

-------> 제국주의론에 따르면 제국주의 국가들이 식민지를 건설하고 경제적으로 수탈했다고 하는데, 위의 자료들이 보여주듯이, 일본은 수탈(?)한 것보다 훨씬 더 많은 돈을 한반도에 쏟아부었다. 제국주의론이 엉터리라는 명백한 증거이다.

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By the New York Times bestselling author: a provocative account of the attack on the humanities, the rise of intolerance, and the erosion of serious learning

America is in crisis, from the university to the workplace. Toxic ideas first spread by higher education have undermined humanistic values, fueled intolerance, and widened divisions in our larger culture. Chaucer, Shakespeare and Milton? Oppressive. American history? Tyranny. Professors correcting grammar and spelling, or employers hiring by merit? Racist and sexist. Students emerge into the working world believing that human beings are defined by their skin color, gender, and sexual preference, and that oppression based on these characteristics is the American experience. Speech that challenges these campus orthodoxies is silenced with brute force.

The Diversity Delusion argues that the root of this problem is the belief in America’s endemic racism and sexism, a belief that has engendered a metastasizing diversity bureaucracy in society and academia. Diversity commissars denounce meritocratic standards as discriminatory, enforce hiring quotas, and teach students and adults alike to think of themselves as perpetual victims. From #MeToo mania that blurs flirtations with criminal acts, to implicit bias and diversity compliance training that sees racism in every interaction, Heather Mac Donald argues that we are creating a nation of narrowed minds, primed for grievance, and that we are putting our competitive edge at risk.

But there is hope in the works of authors, composers, and artists who have long inspired the best in us. Compiling the author’s decades of research and writing on the subject, The Diversity Delusion calls for a return to the classical liberal pursuits of open-minded inquiry and expression, by which everyone can discover a common humanity.

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쉽게 찍어내는 종이돈 경제는 지속될 수 없다

Our Easy-Money Economy Is Not Sustainable

 

Carmen Elena Dorobăț

 

Rumors of a future financial crisis are spreading once more, as subprime mortgages have made a return under new labels such as "impaired credit" or "complex prime." On an international level, the latest report by the IMF warns against the “risks of rollback, waning multilateralism, and regulatory fatigue” that may bring about a slowdown in global economic activity and a destabilization of global financial markets. The Economist’s October cover story argues that the cause of the next global recession is likely to be uneven momentum: “This divergence [in growth rates] between America and the rest means divergent monetary policies, too. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates eight times since December 2015. The European Central Bank is still a long way from its first increase. In Japan rates are negative.”

 

What "convergent" monetary policies involve, at a global level, is easily deduced from what occurred over the last 10 years. The three rounds of quantitative easing initiated by the Fed in 2013 provided liquidity injections not only in U.S. domestic bank vaults, but also in foreign banks (approximately half of the $US 1.3 trillion). This operation, sometimes dubbed a ‘stealth bailout’, was possible due to the highly connected world capital markets. Once U.S. QE3 ended in October 2014 and the dollar began to appreciate, it was the turn of the ECB, and soon after of the Bank of Japan, to begin their own rounds of purchases of asset-backed securities. Emerging economies joined the game, and either offset the outflow of capital with domestic credit expansion, in order to prevent their currencies from rising and hurting exports, or allowed a slight increase in government bond yields compared to U.S. Treasuries, to attract more foreign funds as a buffer in case interest rates abroad were to rise further. Countries aligned themselves to a level of ‘global inflation’, compensated its reduction or stimulated its growth with additional monetary injections keeping interest rates as low as possible.

 

"Divergent monetary policies" or "uneven momentum" are only euphemisms for a more disturbing trend: in simpler terms, central banks appear now to be temporarily mis-coordinating monetary inflation and credit expansion. As Mises amusingly explained to his students,

 

There is a proverb that says: “One doesn’t talk about the gallows in the home of a family, one of whose members was executed.” In this way, one doesn’t talk about the international problem in terms of inflation. When one talks about an international monetary problem, one says there is not enough “liquidity,” not enough “reserves.” (Mises 2010, 78).

 

With central bank coordination and flexible exchange rates, relative depreciation of currencies is much reduced and relatively painless—and financial markets look quite still on the surface. In its (temporary) absence, some of the inherent deficiencies of the system, the dirty waters lurking underneath, are exposed. If some central banks’ balance sheets expand at higher rates than others, a sharper relative depreciation of their currency makes price inflation more visible domestically, foreign debt more burdensome—particularly for emerging economies—and produces turmoil in financial markets.

 

But the cause of the next recession cannot be uneven growth momentum or the unequal tightening of monetary policies. What causes financial crises, domestic and global, is the underlying, continuing credit expansion. Central banks acting in unison in this expansion across the world only worsen and augment its effects. Therefore, uneven coordination or destabilized financial markets can at most serve as the trigger or catalyst of a financial meltdown.

 

The more important point to be made here is that the attempt to avoid a meltdown from occurring in the first place—through renewed regulation or stronger multilateral cooperation—is futile in the long run. Central banks’ free reign over monetary matters has not only brought about the greatest age of inflation in human history, but has led to the exacerbated development of financial markets and financial instruments, no longer connected to sound money or to the ‘real’ economy. The rotten core of the system was only briefly exposed in 2007 during the financial crisis, but bailouts and the regulatory patchwork of the following years have calmed the waters once more. But this cannot last forever. It is naïve to think that the corroded roots of the financial system will last for long, or that real financial stability is achievable without producing at least a partial implosion of the current system built on money produced out of thin air.

 

A healthy, restructured, and ‘sustainable’ financial system is only possible with sound money whose production is no longer arbitrarily and politically determined:

 

We must realize that money can operate, it can work, only if we have a system in which the government is prevented from manipulating the value of the money… we ought not to have a system of money in which the value of the monetary unit is in the hands of the government so that the government can operate, manipulate the money market in the way it wants to. If the government destroys the monetary system it destroys perhaps the most important foundation of inter-human economic cooperation. (Mises 2010, 83)

 

Unfortunately, we are now likely too late, and past the point of no return. Tracing our steps back to a healthy monetary and financial system will undeniably be very painful. Nevertheless, postponing the inevitable collapse is only going to make it much worse.

 

 

Carmen Dorobăț has a PhD in economics from the University of Angers, and is Assistant Professor of Business at Leeds Trinity University.

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이탈리아는 기이한 인센티브와 이권 단체를 줄이고, 고(高)생산성 부문을 벌주면서 저생산성 부문을 보조해주는 일을 멈춰야 한다. 이탈리아의 문제는 유로화에 있지 않고, 정치적 지출에 있다.

 

Italy’s Problem Is Not The Euro, It’s Political Spending

 

Daniel Lacalle

 

 

The Italian government has created another massive turmoil in European markets with its 2019 budget proposal.

 

With a huge increase in spending, it estimated a deficit of 2.4% for 2019 compared to its previous target of 0.8% and the 1.6% announced by the finance minister.

 

Not only does it represent a huge increase in a country that already has 131% of debt over GDP, but a brief analysis of the tax revenue estimates shows that the figure presented is simply unattainable. Most independent analysts pointed the evidence of over-optimistic estimated revenues, raising fears of an additional 14 billion euro financial gap.

 

The Milan stock market collapsed, banks had to be suspended from trading after falling 6-7%, bond yields soared and the 10-year Italian bond fell to the worst level in a year despite the interventions of the European Central Bank.

 

This is what happens when a country with enormous internal problems launches itself to the eternal magic solution of spending much more and increasing deficits.

 

Many commented that this is the “price of sovereignty”. Someone has to enlighten me on how you achieve sovereignty raising debt and increasing current spending.

 

Anyone who believes raising imbalances and threatening with default and leaving the euro is going to be the solution for Italy ahead of billions in maturities and with banks burdened with enormous non-performing loans and government bonds, simply dreams.

 

The prospect of capital controls, bank runs, and domino bankruptcies is even conservative.

 

The biggest problem of the proposals is that they are the same old mistakes that never worked. Massive subsidies and political spending are not tools for growth but the recipe for stagnation and ultimately larger and more painful adjustments in the long term.

 

Italy has been one of the main beneficiaries of the ECB bond purchase program. Despite the enormous bubble and bond yield compression created by the quantitative easing policy, Italian bond yields have soared. Imagine outside of the eurozone and with a central bank committed to copying Argentina and Turkish monetary policies, as Spain or Italy did before the euro.

 

Italy’s enormous debt burden is not a consequence of “austerity”. It is misleading to define as austerity a Government spending of 48.9 percent of GDP in 2017. Government Spending to GDP in Italy averaged 49.83 percent from 1990 until 2017.

 

 

The monster public spending that Italy is proposing is not the solution. Even less, it would be impossible outside of the euro, with the historical knowledge that the central bank would pursue an inflationary and purchasing-power destructing policy, as it did in the years before the euro.

 

Italy’s economic problems are self-inflicted, not due to the Euro.

 

*Italy has seen more governments since World War II than any other country in the European Union.

 

*Governments of all colors have consistently promoted inefficient dinosaur “national champions” and state-owned semi-ministerial corporations at the expense of small and medium enterprises, competitiveness and growth.

 

*Labor market rigidities remained, leaving high unemployment and differences between regions.

 

*A perverse incentive financial system, where banks were incentivized to lend to obsolete and indebted state-owned companies in their disastrous empire-building acquisitions, inefficient municipalities, as well as finance bloated local and national government spending. This led to the highest Non-Performing Loan figure in Europe.

 

*A nightmare legal system that makes it virtually impossible to repossess assets from bad debt, led non-performing loans through the roof and malinvestment to soar.

 

*A thriving export and small enterprise ecosystem were constantly limited by taxation and bureaucracy. This made the thriving companies smaller and actively looking to set activities outside of Italy.

 

*Because of this, government spending continued to rise well above revenues. As Italy -like Spain and Portugal- decided to penalize high-productivity sectors with rising taxes, revenues fell short, while expenditures continued to rise. Italy, like so many peripheral countries, created a massive “crowding out” effect of the public sector against the private. It is not a coincidence that most citizens in Italy, like Spain or Portugal, prefer to be civil servants than entrepreneurs.

None of these problems are solved in this budget. In fact, they are worsened by increasing massively entitlements and subsidies.

 

It is no wonder that, while private companies managed to survive and improve “despite government”, debt and non-performing loans soared.

 

Many blame the euro. As if the same crowding out effect would not have happened outside of the single currency. The only difference is that outside the euro, the government would have destroyed savers and citizens through constant “competitive devaluations” that were the cause of the economic weaknesses of the past. Constant devaluations did not make Italy, Spain or Portugal more competitive, they made them perennially poor and perpetuated their imbalances.

 

Corruption costs Italy a reported €60 billion a year, which amount to four percent of its GDP., according to the Corruption Perception Index. A problem that affects Spain as well. Increasing funds for politicians to manage only increases cronyism, special interests and perverse incentives.

 

Devaluations were never a tool for competitiveness, but a tool for cronyism. And that has pushed Italy to stagnation.

 

Blaming the euro will not save Italy. Increasing the imbalances that have led to stagnation will worsen its delicate situation.

 

Magic solutions never work. What Italy needs is to reduce perverse incentives, special interests and stop subsiding the low productivity sectors while penalizing the high productivity ones.

 

Italy’s problem is political spending. The same problem that this budget is going to increase massively.

 

Originally published at DLacalle.com

 

Daniel Lacalle has a PhD in Economics and is author of Escape from the Central Bank Trap, Life In The Financial Markets and The Energy World Is Flat.

 

 

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