이데일리 "언제 무너져도"…3대 악재 '퍼펙트 스톰'에 기업들 '비상' '3高' 역대급 시련 직면…삼성 등도 경영·투자 계획 재검토 중소·중견 '언제 무너져도 이상하지 않아'…커지는 우려 전문가들 "정부 묘수 내놔야 할 때…법인세 인하 등 절실" 한국 기업들이 ‘퍼펙트 스톰’(한꺼번에 덮치는 위기)에 휩싸이며 역대급 시련에 직면했다. 우크라이나 사태 및 원자잿값 급등, 코로나발(發) 중국 봉쇄 및 공급망 붕괴에 이어 금리 인상까지 겹치며 한국 경제에 3고(고물가·고금리·고환율) 위기가 드리우자 기업들의 경영환경에도 먹구름이 낀 것이다. 올 하반기 경기침체 속 물가가 오르는 이른바 스태그플레이션에 대비해 기업들이 지난해 말 세운 경영·투자 계획을 재점검하거나, 컨틴전시플랜(비상대책)을 가동하는 등 긴장의 끈을 놓지 못하는 배경이다. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 미국은 대중교통까지 마스크 해제했어 병신들아 서울특별시장 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11412119132 외부 마스크 해제는 1년 전부터 시행했었고 조선이 존나 늦게 풀어준건데 븅신같은 음모론 싸개면서 마스크 계속 써야된다느니 노마스크충 병신이라느니 지랄들을 하고 자빠졌네 ㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋㅋ 빨리 미국따라 조선도 대중교통 마스크 해제시켜야 됨 그래야 씨발 조선 틀딱들이 마스크갖고 시비 터는 미개한 모습 안보지 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 세상이 미쳐돌아간다 ft, 노숙자찢뜯 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11412129335 노숙자들이 자꾸 지하철 엘리베이터 내외부에 똥오줌을 싸고 시설물을 파괴하니 지하철 역장이 경고문을 부착함 이 경고문이 노숙자의 인권을 침해했다는 신고에 인권위는 사회적 편견과 차별 노숙자의 인권을 침해한게 맞다고 했네 씨발 https://n.news.naver.com/article/056/0011258828?cds=news_edit -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- nolmo/ 일베 댓글 검수완박 강행하고 시간 지날수록 피해보는건 무조건 국민들임 내가 항상 좌빨한테 묻고싶은건 검사는 부패하고 경찰은 부패안하냐?. 검사새끼들이 부패해봐야 일개 국민따리랑 직접 엮일일이 거의 없다니깐 경찰 새끼들 부패하면 피해볼때 직고소하는 국민들은 누가 보호해주냐? 검찰 유착해서 기업인 정치인이 숨는다지만 경찰따리들 돈받아먹고 유착생기면 그때는 도대체 어떻게 해야되냐? 예를들어서 동네 사업장에서 돈좀있고 힘좀있는 사장놈이 동네 서장이랑 술도 한잔하고 골프도 좀 치고 하늘 무서운줄 모르고 쳐다니다가 밑에 직원놈이 좆같이구네? 쌍욕박고 싸대기 한대 후려갈겨 맞아서 고소했더니 관할 형사 새끼가 사장도 맞았다니 무조건 너새끼 쌍방이래. 반말 찍갈기고 위협수사하네? 싸다구 맞은 증거도 없네 아 씨발 억울해 인터넷에 글 쳐올리거임? 좌빨들 제발 좆같은 일 많이 당하고 고소과정에서 또 형사새끼들한테 좆같은 꼴 실컷당해봐라. 앞으로 한국 필리핀 꼴난다 진짜 필리핀가면 경찰새끼들이랑 범죄자랑 짜고치는거 다들알지 ㅋㅋㅋㅋ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 서울신문 ‘헌재의 시간’ 넘어간 검수완박… 檢, 한동훈 임명 뒤 심판 청구할 듯 이번 주 ‘권한쟁의심판’ 본격 심리 헌재, 법무·檢총장에 의견서 요청 대검도 청구 방침 속 자격 논란에 당사자인 부처 장관 임명 뒤 진행 헌재 결론도 언제쯤 날지 미지수 “빨라야 3개월… 단기간 내 힘들 듯” ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Joe바이택동/ 일베 댓글 @알파고급분석가 파시스트는 극우가 아니라 극좌야. 파시즘의 어원 자체가 노조의 단결을 보릿단이 뭉쳐진 모습을 의미하는 단어인 파스케스에 비유하면서 만들어진 단어임. 무솔리니의 정치커리어는 극단주의 마르크시스트 노조위원장으로 시작해서 민족주의로 나아갔다. 그리고 가장 성공적인 파시즘으로 분류되는 나치정당의 풀네임은 '민족사회주의독일노동자정당''이다. 그리고 히틀러가 탄압했던 사회주의자들은 볼셰비키 계열의 국제사회주의 노선을 주장하는 놈들이었다. 국제주의 노선은 민족국가를 싫어하던 유대인들이 주로 좋아했다. 민족 사회주의가 파시스트야. 고로 파시스트는 빨갱이의 분파다 알간? ------>정확하게 알고 있다 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 공자없는 공자학원의 실체 . araboza 댕댕슨상 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11412158783 https://youtu.be/OtpPAAozXOY 요약 1.어학당을 빙자한 선잔선동 단체가 공자학원 2.일대일로의 일환으로 전 세계에 바퀴벌레처럼 침투 번식함 3.미국 캐나다 일본 호주 독일 등의 나라에선 퇴출이 급속도로 진행 4.공산주의 선동 교육을 넘어 스파이들의 거점으로 활용됨 5.줄어들기는 커녕 중국공산당의 자금유입이 늘고있는 한국 6.마오이즘을 가르치고 6.25 북한의 남침을 항미전쟁으로 교육 짱깨새끼들 저 공자학원 직원으로 한국 기어들어와서 하는짓이 한국 내정간섭이고 스파이짓인데 모른척하는 정치인새끼들은 다 스파이라고 간주하면 된다. 씹쌔끼들 나라를 여러모로 씹창내노.. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 현행 인플레의 뿌리는 잘못된 통화 제도이다 Roots of Our Current Inflation: A Deeply Flawed Monetary System Antony P. Mueller 금융위기를 조장하는 경제 상황은 디플레 때문이 아니라, 법정 화폐제도fiat monetary system 때문이다 A monetary system that allows the creation of money out of thin air is vulnerable to the fits of credit expansion and credit contraction. Periods of credit expansion typically occur over many years and even decades while the phases of credit contraction happen like sudden implosions. The monetary policy makers tend to promote the prolongation of credit expansion because they fear deflation. By doing this, however, the central banks prevent monetary moderate deflation as it would happen as the natural consequence of rising productivity. This way, an antideflationary monetary policy lays the groundwork for an upsurge of price inflation along with augmenting the risk of an abrupt contraction of the financial markets. Credit Cycles Financial cycles can extend over long periods of time. In the past decades, there has been a massive global credit expansion, each of which has received new waves of boosts as it happened since the 1980s and as the result of such events like the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic policy, and the current policy of sanctions in response to the war in Ukraine. The chart (fig. 1) shows total global debt, public debt, household debt, and non-financial corporate debt as a percentage of the global gross domestic product. Calculated in absolute terms, total global debt is rapidly approaching $300 trillion. With the end of the US dollar's link to gold in the 1970s, the international monetary system lost its anchor. Global debt in relation to the world’s gross domestic product has risen from one hundred percent to over two hundred and fifty percent. The attenuation of this credit cycle is long overdue. However, again and again, the major central banks have been fighting any sign of a credit contraction for several decades. In Japan, the battle against credit consolidation began as early as the 1990s. In the United States, the fight against a perceived threat of deflation began around the turn of the millennium. Since the European debt crisis in 2010, the European Central Bank has also joined the monetary orgy. Obviously, the monetary policy makers ignore the risk that by not letting moderate deflationary contraction happen, they produce a monetary overhang. This in turn, poses the twin risk of higher price inflation along with an uncontrolled collapse of the credit markets. Central banks are waging a relentless fight against deflation. Being traumatized by the Great Depression, the modern monetary policy makers suffer from the psycho-pathological condition of “apoplithorismosphobia”—the fear of deflation. The battle of the central banks against deflation has created so much liquidity that the earlier deflationary tendency begins now to manifest itself as an upsurge of price inflation that even the official statistics cannot hide anymore. Having internalized the monetarist lesson about the origin of the Great Depression, central bankers have a deep-seated fear of price deflation, assuming that a fall in the general price level would provoke an economic contraction. However, had central banks left the system alone, deflation would have happened gradually without much turmoil. The economic actors would have had enough room and time to adapt. As such, deflation would not only be harmless but also beneficial. Trapped by their obsession with “stabilization,” central banks have not permitted the economy to move on its natural path. Instead of allowing the self-correcting economic fluctuations, monetary policy has fabricated one artificial expansion after the other. The conventional monetary theory claims that a growing economy would need an expanding money supply. Even monetarist economists like Milton Friedman supported this idea. Yet Murray Rothbard has shown that there is no need of expanding the money supply to provide more liquidity even when the economy grows. If the money supply remains constant and productivity increases, prices would fall accordingly. This would be a beneficial deflation. Why complain when the goods are getting cheaper for consumers and the real wages rise? The crucial point is whether the price deflation happens due to productivity gains in the economy or abruptly as a sharp decline of the liquidity due to a financial market crisis. When central banks intervene and expand the money supply, as it happened in the form of the "zero interest rate policy" (ZIRP) or in some cases of a "negative interest rate policy" (NIRP), tensions will arise between the natural tendency of the interest rate to rise and the monetary interest rate that is kept low through the interventions of the central bank. Because of this discrepancy, there will be an additional demand for money. Over time, this monetary overhang promotes financial fragility and lays the foundation for future price inflation. The massive expansion of the Federal Reserve’s money supply in the form of its monetary base did not immediately lead to price inflation because the velocity of money experienced a sharp fall since 2008. The trend of a falling velocity began to stop in the third quarter of 2020—well before the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Given that the monetary overhang had persisted, prices began to rise right away, and the official consumer price inflation has accelerated to its highest rate in the past four decades. Changes in Relative Prices Do Not Cause Price Inflation The increase in individual prices—for example, crude oil—manifests itself as the change in the relative price. One specific good becomes more expensive in relation to other products. Only if there is a monetary overhang as the result of a previous or ongoing credit expansion, such individual price increases would show up in the so-called price level as an increase of general price inflation. When the policy makers manipulate the interest rate, they create a discrepancy between human time preference and the monetary interest rate. Stimulus policies push down artificially the monetary rate below the natural interest rate, which would emerge in the unhampered market if there were no central bank intervention. Disproportions occur in the financial markets the same way as they do when the state intervenes in the market for goods. Relative prices then no longer reflect consumer preferences and the marginal cost of production. The consequences are economic disruptions in the supply and demand of these goods. The monetary system possesses a natural degree of elasticity. Even if the money supply were tied to a fixed supply of central bank money or in a gold standard, there would be expansions and contractions in macroeconomic spending and the nominal national income. With an anchor of the money supply, these variations of economic activity would happen mainly as fluctuations and short-term swings and not as prolonged phases. The whole idea of stabilization stands in contrast to the need for a system in motion to fluctuate. Money does have loose joints to do its job, yet it should have an anchor to prevent extreme cycles. Under a gold standard, for example, there is an elasticity of money, even if the gold stock is constant. In this respect, the current monetary system is dysfunctional. The use of money will oscillate naturally also with a fixed quantitative amount of its base. It is wrong to claim that only the artificially created so-called fiat money would offer financial flexibility. Rather, the decisive point is that with an anchored monetary system, the degree of deviation is limited, while under the current fiat money regime, there is no restriction. Conclusion A state-sponsored fiat currency system with only a partial reserves coverage of the money in circulation allows the commercial banks to put more money into circulation than they hold in cash. By persistently pursuing an antideflationary policy, the central banks have fueled an ongoing credit expansion. They artificially prolonged the cycle of credit expansion. This means that a natural contraction has been prevented. Along with an upsurge of price inflation, this policy has also increased the risk of an uncontrolled implosion of the credit markets. The current outbreak of price inflation does not come by accident or because of external shocks. The foundation for rising prices was laid over a long period of time. As a consequence, another severe financial crisis looms now again on the horizon. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------