홍남기 "민간·공공 투자여력 총동원해 투자 분위기 확산"
이번 정부의 하반기 경제정책은 전형적인 케인즈 정책이다. 불황기에 흥청망청 소비를 해서 경제적 번영을 이룰 수 있다는 엉터리 학설에 바탕해, 방대한 정부 자원을 마구 뿌리겠다는 말이다. 경제는 더욱 하락할 것이고, 재정 적자는 차곡차곡 쌓여서, 나중에 한국을 위협하는 폭탄이 될 것이다.
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일본의 수출규제를 보도한 한국 언론 기사들에 달린 댓글 중 몇 개
펀드빌더
sail****
한일합방으로 사실상 2차대전에서 일본이 몸빵으로 다 얻어맞아주고 우리 나라는 평온했지. 연합국 폭격도 일본이 얻어맞고 핵도 일본만 얻어맞고. 그리고 전후 책임에서도 우리는 아주 자유로웠고. 주변국들은 전쟁으로 벌집이 됐었는데…일본으로부터 피해 입은 것보다 그 이후 6·25로 피해 입은 게 더 크다. 나라가 완전히 잿더미가 되었고, 인구 6분의 1인 수백만 사상자가 발생했다. 그리고 지금까지 핵과 미사일을 개발하고 무력도발을 일삼는 게 북한이다. 지금 북한을 처빠는 것들을 볼 때 역사를 잊은 민족에게 미래가 없다는 말은 일본에게 적용되는 게 아니라 우리 나라에게 적용된다.
an4t****
솔직히 세계 어느 나라가 70여 년 지난 일, 국가 배상 끝난 걸 갖고 개인간 배상이니 뭐니 물고 늘어지냐. 일본 욕하기 전에 우리 민족성이 정상인지 살펴 봐라. 세월호도 그렇고 이건 뭐 끝이 없는 민족성 아니냐. 원한으로 따지면 2천만 명 죽은 소련이 독일에게 품은 원한이 더 깊고 500년 간 러시아에 지배당한 폴란드나 핀란드가 더할 것인데, 어느 나라 어느 민족이 이렇게 과거를 우려먹는지 설명해 주라.
2019.07.01. 17:52:10
beni****
반도체 소재는 시작에 불과한데 아직도 진실을 숨기고 정신승리만 하네. 한국 산업 전반 제조업 전체가 일본 기술특허 생산설비 없으면 올스톱이야. 궁금하면 집에서 가까운 아무 중소기업이나 찾아가 물어 봐. "일본에서 수입한 기계랑 공구 없으면 공장 가동 못하나요? 한국 정도 기술이면 직접 만들면 되잖아요?"라고. 중소기업 사장은 왠 모자라는 놈인가 싶어 한참 쳐다보다가 이렇게 답할 거다. "일본 기술이랑 장비 없으면 중국 제품 수준도 못 따라가. 한국이 직접 만들라고? 10억짜리 밀링머신을 한국이 직접 만들려면 10년 걸리고 수천 억을 갖다 버려야 해." (발췌)
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삼성이 대책을 세웠다는 뉴스는 거짓이었구먼!
자한당은 이 문제를 시민들에게 널리 알리고, 반드시 문죄인에게 책임을 물어야 한다.
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진보경제학자가 아니라 좌파 야바위꾼이다.
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Trump’s Visit to North Korea is an Alarming Message to China
고든 창
트럼프의 이번 북한 방문은 북한을 중국에서 떼어내, 미국의 품 안으로 데려오려는 시도이다.
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중국 산업화 시기에 관료들이 기업에 미친 영향을 연구한 책
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Damien Ma
Li Keqiang getting applause at Dalian Davos for pushing tax cuts and saying that govt should tighten its belts to let the people live better lives.
----리커치앙 총리가 감세를 밀어붙이고, 정부의 허리띠를 조
여서 국민의 삶이 나아질 수 있도록 하겠다고 발표했다.
--->이게 한국의 홍남기의 발표보다 훨씬 나은 정책이다.
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How the Humanities and Social Sciences Are Holding China Back
Xu Zhangrun vs. Tsinghua University
Voices of Protest & Resistance (XXVII)
Gong Renren (龔刃韌, 1954-), the author of the following essay, is a professor (retired) in the Law School of Peking University (see here for details) and the head of the Institute for Human Rights 人權研究院.
On 21 June 2019, Professor Gong published an essay that is nothing less than an indictment of China’s academic culture, an accusation of mediocrity and a critique of a cowed and compliant intelligentsia. In his analysis of the ever-deepening crisis in the Chinese humanities and social sciences, Gong contrasts the failures of today with the achievements of the country’s universities during the turbulent and war-torn decades of the Republic of China.
The following essay is thus an elegy for the long-lost world of pre-1949 Chinese academia, a warning about the bedevilled state of the country’s universities under a reinvigorated Party ideology and a caution about the global blight of metrics- and ranking-driven, industrial-scale for-profit education. In particular, the author skewers the Chinese academy for having barely sloughed off the Maoist past only to become a laboratory for a dual experiment: one in which the culture of neo-liberal metrics in line with the concocted laws of the global educational marketplace is combined with stifling ideological controls that serve the policy shifts of a monolithic party-state.
The author also deftly encapsulates the dilemma of Global China. The People’s Republic has the economic and intellectual heft to contribute to the betterment not only of its own people but to humanity as a whole. Over recent decades, mature policy makers have developed ways for the country to engage creatively with the world, but resurgent Party dominance also demands every greater, and absurd, levels of fealty to its inward-looking dogmas. As a result, higher education is a battleground on which China’s best angels and worst spirits tussle. There may be no clear winners, yet, for many, the struggle itself is of great significance.
It is sobering to consider that the kinds of control that Party committees at Chinese universities exert over their ‘employees’ is the envy of tin-pot managers and academo-crats in many international universities for whom global rankings and budgets are the ne plus ultra of the educational enterprise.
Independent thought, academic freedom and the heart-mind unfettered by political interference are the main themes of this series — ‘Xu Zhangrun vs. Tsinghua University’ — in which Gong Renren’s essay is the latest chapter. One can only hope that China’s today — with a marketised ideology and metrics-wielding overlords — will not prove to be the future for everyone. Reports from the front line of academia, however, do not augur well.
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제소해보았자 우리가 불리할 테니, 제소할 수가 없을 거다. 국가 간의 조약을 헌신짝처럼 팽개치고, 이제와서 일본에게만 국가 간의 약속을 지키라고?
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이경재 변호사 (최순실 변호인)
인터뷰-" 국정 농단은 허구다. 비선실세도 뇌물도 없었다"
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지금 좌파들은 이번에 반일 열풍을 일으키고, 그 열기를 내년 총선까지 가지고 가려할지도 모른다. 내년 총선은 마침 한일전으로 프레임을 짜놓았다.
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옥스브릿지에서 가장 좋은 점은, 교직원들의 간섭을 최소화하고 교수들이 직접 학생들과 교류한다는 것이다.
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Matt Ridley
Another triumph for green rent-seekers.
처음에는 유럽연합이 독일 자동차 로비스트들과 손잡고 디젤 차를 영국에 팔아먹었다. 그런데 이제는 바이오연료를 팔아먹고 있다.
--->유럽연합이 요구하는 팜 오일을 만들려면 7만 헥타르의 농지가 필요한데, 그곳은 최근까지 멸종 위기 오랑우탕의 서식지였다.
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Matt Ridley
The trouble with issues like this is that, as explained to me by somebody with close knowledge of the system this week, "you have to remember that Natural England and the Environment Agency, are no longer interested in squirrels or crayfish or curlews, but only in carbon."
내추럴 잉글랜드와 같은 비정부 환경단체 그리고 환경부는 더이상 다람쥐 따위에는 관심이 없고, 오직 이산화탄소에만 관심이 있다.
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나는 은행이 군대보다 위험하다고 믿는다. 후대에 채무를 남기면서 돈을 쓰는 짓은 대규모의 미래 세대 횡령이다.
--->문죄인이 지금 복지정책 그리고 케인즈 정책이라는 이름으로 후대에 채무를 넘기면서 돈을 펑펑 쓰고 있다.
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코퍼러티즘(組合主義)은 자본주의가 아니다. 진정한 비용은 아직 치뤄지지 않았다. 코퍼러티즘은 정치적으로 연기된 파산이다.
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새끼 코끼리의 탄생을 환영하는 코끼리들.
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멋진 키스, 달콤한 키스
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가짜 경제성장 통계가 심각한 문제를 숨기고 있다.
2010년 이후 선진 산업국들의 경제는 가짜 경제 성장의 예이다. 이들 국가의 경제 회복은 생산력의 강화로 인한 것이 아니라, 거대한 유동성 팽창에 의한 것이다.
사회적 정의를 외치는 사람들은 더많은 정부 지출과 저금리 정책을 요구하지만, 바로 그런 정책들이 현재의 불평등과 불만을 야기한 원인들이다.
Phony Economic Growth Stats Conceal Deep Problems on Main Street
Antony P. Mueller
We live not only in a time of fake news but also in the era of fake economic growth. The performance of the economies of the industrialized countries since 2010 is a prominent case of deceptive economic growth. This economic recovery is not the result of a strengthening of the productive forces of the economy, but is due to a massive expansion of liquidity. Central banks created a monetary avalanche that has gone mainly into the financial markets and has become a source of deception for investors. In real terms, the economy has not advanced very much since the financial crisis of 2008. The valuation of financial assets has decoupled from the real economy.
The president’s favorite indicators of prosperity such as the stock market valuation and the official unemployment rate paint a deceiving picture of the true state of the American economy. Alternative calculations of the employment data — which include long-term discouraged workers and chronically unemployed — indicate that the labor market is much slacker than the official statistics indicate. Profits recovered in the first few years after the crisis of 2008 but over the past five years, they have been flat. Stock prices, in turn, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, have risen by over 50 percent since 2012.
The recovery after the crisis of 2008 was brought about by the stimulus packages and later on by the monetary policy of “quantitative easing.” The expansion that followed does not constitute genuine economic growth. While the financial asset markets indicate wealth creation, the economy’s productive capacity tends to remain weak. Over the past ten years, the Congressional Budget Office had to lower its estimate of potential output year by year and productivity growth has stayed below the trend of the time before the crisis of 2008.
At the national and the global level, the size of the fabrication of additional central bank money since 2008 has been unprecedented. Led by the Federal Reserve, the other major central banks joined in to increase the global money supply. The balance sheets of the world’s three main central banks rose from four trillion in 2008 to fifteen trillion U.S.-dollars in 2018.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve System expanded its holding of assets from less than one trillion in 2008 to over 4.5 trillion US-dollars in 2015 until the American central bank began a policy of reducing its stock of assets in 2018 to the present level of about 3.8 trillion US-dollars (Figure 1).
The point to notice here is not only what has happened but what has not. Firstly, this massive amount of liquidity creation has not led to higher price inflation and secondly, compared to this immense increase of liquidity, the expansion of the real economy has been mediocre. Both facts are interrelated. Despite an unprecedented increase in liquidity, the real economic expansion has been poor, and the price level has remained relatively stable. Both, the average real growth rate of the US economy, and the mean annual inflation rate have been less than 2 percent over the past ten years. For the euro area, the data are not very much different, and for Japan, these indicators are even worse.
The recent surge in the American economic growth rate to 3.2 percent in the first quarter of 2019 is as fake as the economic growth before when it was the result of monetary expansion. Now when the American central bank tries to shorten its balance sheet via monetary policy, fiscal policy has become expansionist with the Trump tax cuts. The fiscal stimulus has replaced the monetary stimulus. At the beginning of the year 2019, US federal debt reached over 22 trillion US-dollars and the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product surpassed the level of 105 percent since 2016 (Figure 2).
Whereas one does not know how the economy would have done in the absence of the expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, we do know that relative to the magnitude of the monetary and fiscal stimuli, the impact of the expansionary policies on economic growth and the price inflation has been modest. Now, in the mid of 2019, while the economy has not yet fully recovered, there is still a balance sheet problem and rising public debt, both of which will become severe problems when the economy heads into the next recession.
The economic policies that the authorities implemented in response to the crisis of 2008 have not been very effective. They have brought more problems instead of a solution. By pushing the interest rate down to zero, and partially into negative territory, by flooding the financial markets with liquidity, central bankers have elevated the valuation of bonds and stocks and real estate to levels that far exceed the growth of the economy and consequently the rise of salaries. This has made the monetary policymakers the prime culprits of the massive wealth disparity that has emerged over the past ten years. They have been the perpetrators behind the shift of popular sentiment that has made capitalism dubious and socialism popular.
Things will get worse when the next recession strikes. The Federal Reserve System and the other important central banks have produced an economy of Zombie companies. In an environment of extremely low interest rates, a plethora of business projects emerge that create economic activity and raise employment but will not be able to withstand higher interest rates. In the meantime, these Zombie firms suck the blood out of the healthy part of the economy. Because a return to normalcy would reveal that a large part of the economy is on artificial life support and that the recovery has been fake, the central bankers have opted for lower interest rates and governments for more deficits. Central banks and governments buy a short-lived extension of the economic expansion at the price of a bigger bust to come. These policies instigate malinvestment and deepen the misallocation.
Policymakers ignore the main lesson of the crisis of 2008 that monetary and fiscal stimulus policies do not bring about a solid recovery but manufacture a phony economic growth that distorts the economy’s structure of production. Instead of a V-shaped recovery that would occur if government abstained from intervention, policymakers produce an L-shaped agony.
As if a prolonged stagnation wasn’t already bad enough, the interventionists also act as the undertakers of capitalism. Policy intervention distorts the economy and drives a wedge between Wall Street and Main Street. The majority of the people do not attribute the discrepancy between the growth of financial wealth and the stagnation of the real economy to the policy of the authorities — but accuses capitalism of this evil.
It is hard to find a greater paradox in current politics than that the battle cry for social justice demands more government spending and a monetary policy which ignores debt and deficits. It was exactly this kind of policy that has caused the present widespread discontent.
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병세가 악화되는 시점이 바로 병 치료의 최적기이다.
疑难病治疗秘诀【二】欲剧时就是欲解时
一点点的西药也不能用，中成药也不能用，就喝汤药，光治感冒，不要考虑他的原发病。这就是我今天要说的疑难病治疗秘诀。
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