Francis Picabia
(1879~1953)의
1941-2 그린 작품.
독일군 점령하에서 그린 작품.
푸른 천을 두른 소대가리에 개돼지 민중들이 환호하는 모습이 인상적이네. 작가는 수십년 뒤 동북아 빨갱이 나라에서 비슷한 일이 일어날 줄 알고 있었던 걸까... / 일베
삶은 소대가리가 앙천대소하다.
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9월 고용률 61.5%로 23년만에 최고…
취업자 34만8천명 연합뉴스
zzan****
제조업(-11만1천명), 도매 및 소매업(-6만4천명), 공공·행정·국방 및 사회보장행정(-6만2천명) 등에서는 감소했다.핵심 ㅋ 양질 일자리는 다사라짐 보건업 및 사회복지서비스업(17만명), 전문·과학 및 기술 서비스업(8만3천명), 숙박 및 음식점업(7만9천명) 등에서 주로 늘었다. 알바 +노인 단기알바
sosa****
도대체 이건 어디서 나온 통계란 말인가? 기업폐업률도 엄청나고 주위에 실업자, 단기 알바들이 무지 많은데...아~~ 알바도 4대보험 신고하게 해 놔서 그것까지 다 합친거냐? 이리도 살기 어렵고 경재시한폭탄이라는데 이게 말이돼?
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악플 방지법은 또 다른 포퓰리즘
설리 자살을 악플로 몰아가 언론들
설리가 악풀 때문에 죽었다는 증거는 있나 ?
증거도 없이 표현의 자유는 생략 해버리고
감정적 인민재판으로
악플 규제하겠다 하면
무조건 칭찬만 하라고 ?
칭찬만 있고 반대는 없다
그렇게 칭찬만 할 것 같으면
중국 북한이랑 다를게 뭐냐 ?
나라꼴 미개하다 한심하고
이나라는 표현의 자유를 망각한듯하다
표현의 자유를 이해 못 하는 정치인들은
포퓰리즈트다 정치권에서 내보야 한다
정광용의 주장.
혜은이의 이 노래는 제목 그대로 열정적으로 불러야 하는데, 요요미라는 가수는 너무 귀엽게 부른다.
설리가 악풀 때문에 죽었다는 증거는 있나 ?
증거도 없이 표현의 자유는 생략 해버리고
감정적 인민재판으로
악플 규제하겠다 하면
무조건 칭찬만 하라고 ?
칭찬만 있고 반대는 없다
그렇게 칭찬만 할 것 같으면
중국 북한이랑 다를게 뭐냐 ?
나라꼴 미개하다 한심하고
이나라는 표현의 자유를 망각한듯하다
표현의 자유를 이해 못 하는 정치인들은
포퓰리즈트다 정치권에서 내보야 한다
연예인들은 경쟁에서 밀리면 자살하지
악플이 원인은 아니다
일베
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사설] '최저임금' 文 결정 아니라니, 정말 삶은 소가 웃을 일
만약 최저임금 인상이 성공했으면 이 모든 것은 문 대통령이 한
일이고 업적이라고 자랑했을 것이다.
실제 문 대통령은 "최저임금 인상의 긍정적 효과가 90%"라고
했다. 그러나 최저임금 인상으로 빈부 격차가 더 벌어지고 서민
삶이 어려워진 사실을 더 이상 숨길 수 없게 되자
이제는 문 대통령이 한 일이 아니라
고 한다. 정말 삶은 소가 웃을 일이다. ---조선일보
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Gordon G. Chang
#China will soon take all data and communications of foreign companies: http://bit.ly/32vkju4 . Chinese enterprises will surely end up knowing everything about their foreign competitors. Time for Prez #Trump to use emergency powers to force our businesses off Chinese soil.
중국은 조만간 외국 기업의 모든 자료와 통신을 접수할 것이다. 트럼프가 비상 권한을 발동해, 미국 기업들을 중국에서 철수시켜야 한다.
China’s New Cybersecurity Program: NO Place to Hide
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Jenny Leonard인증된 계정
Scoop from my colleagues in Beijing: China isn’t ready to sign what Trump calls the “phase one” deal without more talks later this month. Beijing also wants commitments prior to signing that the next round of U.S. tariffs, scheduled for Dec. 15, is off.
중국은 '1단계 합의'에 서명할 준비가 되어 있지 않다.
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Mike Forsythe 傅才德인증된 계정
THREAD: The Deutsche Bank internal documents show ONE VERY PROMINENT FAMILY was deeply enmeshed in the bank's China business - the family of Wen Jiabao, China's premier from 2003-2013.
독일은행의 내부 문서에 따르면 은행의 중국 지점에 원자바오
전 총리의 가족이 깊이 개입되어 있다.
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싱가포르 호텔에 고용된 로봇과 요리사의 오믈렛 경연
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Scott Kennedy
Why Beijing should be seen as clear victor in negotiations: they delayed new tariffs w/o making any significant concessions.
중국은 어떤 양보도 하지 않고 관세를 막아냈으므로, 승자로
보아야 한다.
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Eric Fish
One of Navarro’s co-authors was unaware. Glenn Hubbard, professor of finance & economics at Columbia, when asked whether he knew Navarro had inserted a fictional character in their non-fiction book, and whether doing so was OK with him, replied “No and no”
Eric Fish
For nearly two decades, Peter Navarro has been citing a made-up person in his books who says things like "Only the Chinese can turn a leather sofa into an acid bath, a baby crib into a lethal weapon, and a cellphone battery into heart-piercing shrapnel.” https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/20191015-navarro …
피터 나바로가 자신의 책에서 가공의 인물을 내세워 엉터리 증
언을 조작해냈다.
---->대중 강경론자인 나바로의 입지가 흔들리게 되었다.
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헌법대로] 한국당 의원 총사퇴 하고, 조기 총선 실시하라. [RNB, 레지스탕스TV, 정광용TV]
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김경율 전 참여연대 집행위원장
"박근혜 정권의 탄핵이 ‘부패한 보수가 무능했다’는 것을 입증
했다면 이번 ‘조국 사태’는 진보가 부패할 수 있다는 것을 보여
줬다"
"참여연대로 대표되는 시민단체, 그리고 여러 지식인의 의견들
을 보면 이분들이 상당히 권력 친화적 태도(를 보이고 있다)"며
"지식인이라면 마땅히 가져야 할 비판적 사고(가 없다)"
"(시민단체와 지식인들의) 무비판적인 태도를 보면서 분열
이 아니라 진보진영 몰락(이라고 생각했다)"
조선일보
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"박근혜 정권의 탄핵이 ‘부패한 보수가 무능했다’는 것을 입증
했다면 이번 ‘조국 사태’는 진보가 부패할 수 있다는 것을 보여
줬다"
"참여연대로 대표되는 시민단체, 그리고 여러 지식인의 의견들
을 보면 이분들이 상당히 권력 친화적 태도(를 보이고 있다)"며
"지식인이라면 마땅히 가져야 할 비판적 사고(가 없다)"
"(시민단체와 지식인들의) 무비판적인 태도를 보면서 분열
이 아니라 진보진영 몰락(이라고 생각했다)"
조선일보
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혜은이 열정
혜은이 -열정 (passion Cover) by YOYOMI
이선희(Lee sun hee) 라이브-열정 (혜은이와)
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순환 논리는 과학이 아니다.
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Sometimes the best books to read are ones you've al
ready read.
What book do you find yourself wanting to re-read?
때로 읽어야 할 최고의 책들은 우리가 이미 읽은 책들
이다.
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Claire Lehmann인증된 계정
Philosopher @HealthUntoDeath says that locating the mind inside the brain is "phrenology," & using MRI scans is like using "callipers."
Looking forward to his next article explaining that Alzheimer's disease is a social construct, & that brain injuries can be cured with Reiki
머리 속의 정신의 위치를 확정하는 일은 골상학이고, 이때 MRI
사진은 캘리퍼를 사용하는 것과 같다는 철학자.
다음에는 알츠하이머가 사회적 구성체라는 주장을 들고 나올
듯하다.
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Quillette
Corporate Subservience to China Exposes the Hypocrisy of
Woke Capitalism
중국에 대한 기업들의 저자세는 의식화 된 자본주의의 위선을
보여준다.
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남편의 묘비명인데, 좀 희극적이다.
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올해의 노벨경제학상은 경제학이 왜소해지고 있다는 나쁜 징조이다.
주류경제학이 거대 이론, 상호의존과 협업에서의 보편 이론, 고전적 문제 등에서, 소규모적이고 점진적이며 실험적인 측정 연습으로 가고 있다.
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs)는 의심을 지닌 사람들을 설득하기에는 적합하지만, 집적적인 과학적 진보를 위해서는 손해이다.
경제학자의 임무는 엑스와 와이가 연관되어 있다는 것을 실험적으로 밝히는 데 있지 않고, 엑스가 어떻게 와이에게 영향을 끼치는지 인과적으로 설명하는데 있다.
New Nobel Winners Are Latest Bad Sign for Economic Theory
Peter G. Klein
The 2019 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel – colloquially known as the Nobel Prize in Economics – has gone to Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer are pioneers in the use of field experiments, or randomized-controlled trials (RCTs), to study economic phenomena. An RCT in economics is analogous to its counterpart in medicine. The economist wishes to study a particular rule or policy (an “intervention,” in the jargon) – say, giving teachers a financial reward to show up for classes. Rather than work out a theoretical model and then “test” it against historical data on incentives and attendance, as most contemporary economists would do, the economist conducts an experiment in real time. One group of teachers in an actual school is given the treatment, another the control (i.e., no change in incentives), and the differences between the groups are compared. The results are then generalized to suggest that this incentive is effective at reducing teacher absenteeism.
Reaction to the prize has been almost uniformly positive. Alex Tabarrok provides a useful summary of the field with links to the Laureates’ key papers. Other summaries and evaluations can be found in the usual places. Reactions on #EconTwitter have been glowing, with testimonies from Banerjee’s, Duflo’s, and Kremer’s colleagues, current and former students, and many admirers. Besides their purely academic work, which has had an enormous impact on the field of development economics, Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer have also been active in advising, consulting, teaching, and otherwise influencing development policy.
While some commentators have been surprised by the timing (Duflo, at 46, is the youngest ever recipient of the award), there was no doubt that these RCT specialists – “randomistas,” to their critics – would eventually be recognized with a Nobel prize. Their work is an important part of the empirical turn I wrote about earlier this year. Mainstream economics is moving away from grand theory, big questions, general models of interdependence and coordination, and classic problems and toward small-scale, incremental, experimental, and largely atheoretical measurement exercises. Schumpeter and Samuelson, Friedman and Becker (and of course the Austrians) are out, Raj Chetty is in. Among younger economists, the most heated debates are not about Keynesian versus New Classical or Austrian business cycle theories, partial versus general equilibrium approaches, or even socialism versus capitalism, but Stata versus R . In previous centuries, economists needed to know logic, rhetoric, and history. Then it became math and statistics. Now the most important skills are how to code – and how to conduct a RCT.
Within the mainstream literature on economic growth, the randomistas have their critics, such as William Easterly or fellow Nobel laureate Angus Deaton . The abstract from Deaton’s 2018 article with Nancy Cartwright is worth quoting in full:
Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) are increasingly popular in the social sciences, not only in medicine. We argue that the lay public, and sometimes researchers, put too much trust in RCTs over other methods of investigation. Contrary to frequent claims in the applied literature, randomization does not equalize everything other than the treatment in the treatment and control groups, it does not automatically deliver a precise estimate of the average treatment effect (ATE), and it does not relieve us of the need to think about (observed or unobserved) covariates. Finding out whether an estimate was generated by chance is more difficult than commonly believed. At best, an RCT yields an unbiased estimate, but this property is of limited practical value. Even then, estimates apply only to the sample selected for the trial, often no more than a convenience sample, and justification is required to extend the results to other groups, including any population to which the trial sample belongs, or to any individual, including an individual in the trial. Demanding ‘external validity’ is unhelpful because it expects too much of an RCT while undervaluing its potential contribution. RCTs do indeed require minimal assumptions and can operate with little prior knowledge. This is an advantage when persuading distrustful audiences, but it is a disadvantage for cumulative scientific progress, where prior knowledge should be built upon, not discarded. RCTs can play a role in building scientific knowledge and useful predictions but they can only do so as part of a cumulative program, combining with other methods, including conceptual and theoretical development, to discover not ‘what works’, but ‘why things work’.
The last point is important: the economist’s task is not to demonstrate (empirically) that x is associated with y, but to provide a causal explanation of how x affects y. For Austrians, that causal explanation is impossible without a priori theorizing (though the application to specific cases requires historical understanding).
Along these lines, Carmen Dorobăț and I have both criticized Duflo’s idea that economists are best understood as “plumbers,” not philosophers. As I wrote two years ago:
[E]xperiments, and RCTs in particular, are not substitutes for economic theory and more conventional forms of applied economics, because they deal with very small problems. By "small" I don't mean socially unimportant — Banerjee and Duflo became famous for their Poverty Action Lab, an attempt to alleviate poverty in the world's least developed areas — but rather, problems that don't involve much economics beyond something like, "incentives matter." RCTs have been used to study how to get students to study harder for tests, how to write fundraising letters to get more money, how to get people to eat healthier food (maybe), and other social issues. It's unclear that they can provide any insight into the core questions addressed by economic theory and policy, both Austrian and neoclassical. What is the basis of social cooperation? How does an economy grow? What causes business cycles? Should we adopt the gold standard? Does regulation protect private interests? There is nothing wrong with providing a little extra understanding, on the margins. But RCTs don't easily handle the big questions.
To echo David Henderson’s remarks on the prize, we know a lot about what causes poverty – the lack of free markets. Many small-scale experiments on teacher pay or operating practices of health clinics or similar studies may be interesting, but they don’t give us much big-picture knowledge we didn’t already have.
More evidence that the economics has gotten small.
Peter G. Klein is Carl Menger Research Fellow of the Mises Institute and W. W. Caruth Chair and Professor of Entrepreneurship at Baylor University's Hankamer School of Business.
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