[여론]이 최악임에도 [이재명] 끝까지 미는 건 [부정선거] 100% 하겠다는 것임. [이해찬, 양정철] 여론조작 후 부정선거 100% Truth21 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11375177953 제정상적인 민주주의 체제의 당에서 이렇게 민심이 나쁘고 온갖 범죄의 수괴급 되는 조폭 출신이 대통령 후보가 되는 경우는 없다. 요즘 사이트에서 댓글을 보면, [이재명]이 얼마나 미친 범죄자 새끼인지는 국민들이 다 아는 것 같다. 솔직히 더 가르쳐 절 필요없을 정도로 댓글들이 일방적이다. [소시오패스, 도적놈, 사기꾼, 조폭] 그게 사실이고 진실이니깐. 근데 이쯤이면 첨부터 후보가 될 수 없고, [교체론]이 나올 법한데도 이해찬을 비롯한 수괴 빨갱이들이 줄기차게 밀고 가는 건 퇴로가 없고, 지난번 총선 비리와 부정선거를 덮을 수 있는 자가 [범죄자 이재명] 밖에 없기 때문이다. 이렇게 범죄 레코드가 자명하고 민심이 최악인데 저런 자를 끝까지 밀고 가면서 선거를 하겠다는 정당이 어딨겠나. 같은 빨갱이인 정의당 심상정마저 손절치는 판국에. 도지사일 때는 몰라서 그럴 수 있는데, 이제는 국민 모두가 안다. [조직폭력배] 악의 무리 집단에선, 두목은 가장 [잔인한 자]가 되는 법. 저 조직은 더이상 착한 척할 수 없을 정도로 [잔인한 범죄자]집단의 속성이 드러나고 있을 뿐. 결국 [대놓고 부정선거]하겠다고 다 보여주고 있는 거나 마찬가지다. 그런데도 [부정선거] 아니라고 주장하는 새끼들부터 능지처참하고 국민전원이 들고 일어나 힘으로 뒤집지 않으면 대한민국 역사상 가장 잔인하고 미친 자가 권력잡는 걸 보게 된다. 목숨걸고 우리 자녀들을 위해 저 미친놈들을 끌어내야 한다. 평생 숨죽이며 [조직폭력배]들한테 얻어맞고 다니기 싫으면 목숨 걸고 다같이 스크럼을 짜서 저 조직폭력배들을 몰아내야 한다. 빨갱이 카르텔 새끼들 다 죽여버려야 한다. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 오늘자 질본 돼지 낡은 구두.jpg 꼬마김밥 http://www.ilbe.com/view/11375143821복사하기42 2021-10-29 19:38:07 더팩트 '위드 코로나' 선언 정은경 청장의 '낡은 구두' [TF포착] 점심값을 수십만원씩 처먹고 억대연봉에 부동산자산가임 흰머리 염색쑈 구두쑈 빈티지패션 좌파운동하던애들 정신세계에는 뭐가 있는걸까? wkfk**** 원순이형 고마워요. 형덕에 앞으로 저딴거엔 안속게 됐어^ mu64**** 대가리 염색않고 복집에서 복 먹을 돈으로 신 한켤레 사지 그랬어? 사기꾼 문씨의 충견이 다방면으로 나라 얼굴에 똥칠하군요. 거짓의 달인들...ㅉㅉㅉ kspe**** 자주 자주 비싼 스시 먹을 돈은 있고, 신발 살 돈은 없는 불쌍한 공무원들이 종종 보임 envo**** 지가 신는 구두하나도 관리 못해서 저모냥인데 무슨 국민들 질병을 관리 하겠단건지 ... 한심하네 진짜 chri**** 월급 받을만큼 받으면서 궁상떨지 마라 --->저런 글을 쓰는 기자들의 정신 상태가 궁금하다. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 조선일보 이재명 “불로소득이 나라 망쳐, 고위직 부동산 강제매각 시킬 것” ---->이재명이 아니라 이틀러라고 불러야 할 것 같다. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 문화일보 정자동 ‘가스공사 부지’ 개발 자본금 1만원 시행사에 낙찰 가스公, 계약해지 특약도 체결 성남시의회 ‘과도한 특혜’ 반발 낙찰 뒤 자본금 3억으로 증자 아파트 짓고 488배 수익 챙겨 ---> 자본금 만원으로 1448억을 번 이 사람이 바로 불로소득에 해당한다. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- YTN "백신 맞은 사람들이 무증상 전파" 英 연구에 의료계 촉각 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 선관위 자살골(?)이 될 전자개표기 증언확보. 재검표 대활약 황교안 외. 비제이 톨 https://youtu.be/Ln0NFZ1ybFA ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 죽었다 깨어나더라도 / 슬슬 몸 푸는 모습이 보이지 않는가 / 이해관계가 없는 사람에겐 모두 다 보이는데 / 어째 똑똑한 사람들에겐 보이지 않을까 / 희안한 일 [공병호TV] https://youtu.be/aC0oqB2Jwxo ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 과학은 어떻게 사기로 전락하는가 잡지나 신문을 보다보면 과학적 배경을 갖고 환상적인 주장을 하는 일을 종종 목격한다. 그래서 어떤 수퍼푸드를 먹으면 너무나 건강해지고, 어떤 동작을 반복하면 성공할 수 있다는 식이다. 이렇듯 복잡다단한 문제를 단순하고 혁명적인 해법으로 해결할 수 있다는 생각이 언론인들과 정치가들을 사로잡고 있다. 이런 엉터리 생각을 바로잡기 위해 스튜어트 리치, 보비 더피 등이 책을 써서 반박했는데, 가장 최근의 책으로는 제시 신갈의 <속성 처방: 유행하는 심리학이 사회 문제를 해결할 수 없는 이유, The Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can’t Cure Our Social Ills>이 있다. 신갈 책의 마지막 장은 행동 경제학을 다루고 있고, 넛지nudge 정책이 그 주창자들이 주장하듯이 그렇듯 광범위하게 적용될 수 없다 사실을 폭로한다. How Science So Often Devolves into Quick Fixes and Quackery Joakim Book Open a popular magazine of your choice, or even the newspaper of record, and you’ll find a lot of fascinating claims seemingly backed by scientific aura. Eat this superfood and you’ll be healthy; do this minor thing every day and you’ll be successful; have governments just slightly change some condition that faces us hapless humans and we’ll change the world. A few months ago, I called this image a “pretend world,” with pretend ideals, pretend money and pretend language. A world of quick fix and quick bucks, where the road to success no longer requires hard work, just papering over whatever defects emerge. An idea about simple and revolutionary solutions to complicated problems seems to have consumed the chattering classes, our media elites, and our political overlords. In the last two years, I’ve stumbled across several engaging books trying to fight back against at least some of the research that underlies this nonsense: Stuart Richie at King’s College London wrote Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth; his colleague at King’s Bobby Duffy, armed with data from his previous job at the polling firm Ipsos MORI, released Perils of Perceptions: Why We’re Wrong about Nearly Everything; yet another Brit, Tim Harford, published How to Make the World Add Up; and Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West released Calling Bullsh*t: The Art of Scepticism in a Data-Driven World. The latest of these books specializing in “takedowns of stupid research” to land on my desk is Jesse Singal’s The Quick Fix: Why Fad Psychology Can’t Cure Our Social Ills. It’s a pleasant read, as Singal makes his way across various chapters of psychological research claims that turn out to have hyped their results much beyond what they deserve. Some of the specific examples are repeated from the above books, like Daryl Bem’s "extrasensory perception," where an established psychology professor in a peer-reviewed article in a top-ranked psychology journal showed that university students can see the future (p < 0.05). Same with Amy Cuddy’s power poses: the claim that sitting and standing in more power-like positions can boost our self-esteem to the point where most perceived social ills (e.g., gender outcome gaps, racial discrimination) go away. Others I wasn’t aware of, like the hundreds of millions of dollars that the US Army plunged into weak, unproven, and frankly ridiculous projects that tried to prevent posttraumatic stress disorder in veterans. Because unvetted positive-psychology research had shown that the Penn Resilience Program, a twenty-hour course specifically targeting children and adolescents, could maybe reduce the onset of depression and anxiety, its proponents could naturally create an Army-wide program for curing PTSD. We can solve the hardest of mental health problems by merely telling people to be happy and optimistic! Science™. Another fancy idea is the grit revolution: the vague idea that by boosting the ability to work hard or endure hardships in the present in exchange for future benefits, one could ostensibly revolutionize America. We could close the education and outcome gaps between rich and poor or between racial groups by simply teaching the disadvantaged to embrace grit. It’s low-hanging fruit for Singal to debunk such laughable research, but in each chapter, he bends over backward to respectfully describe them first before he takes them apart. It usually comes down to a combination of common research faults: one-off results that were hyped to oblivion before it turns out that they don’t replicate. Young researchers, through intentional fraud or statistical incompetency and desperate to make a name for themselves in a cutthroat academy (where new, flashy, and positive results are required for publication in top journals) break the rules of proper scientific engagement, concluding that because a finding seems to hold in a narrow, specified, or lab-generated setting it therefore generalizes to big, flashy, real-world outcomes. The book is about research method problems in psychology, but what ties the chapters together is the credulous belief with which we accept—even long for—shortcuts and simple solutions to hard problems. That small and tiny changes can have outrageously large and lasting social effects—like that flashing an image of an Israeli flag for milliseconds could meaningfully shift “white-hot political divisions among Israelis,” that just beholding the statue The Thinker could “drive churchgoing folk into the arms of Richard Dawkins.” Quick fixes. One mistake we make is to assume that the people who shout the loudest about their research must thus be right, or even know what they’re talking about. Singal’s final chapter is on behavioral economics, or more specifically nudging, and I found my dwindling interest suddenly piqued. The takedowns of previous topics were pretty comprehensive, leading the original studies and their proponents to at best conceding, at worst looking like fools. What was Singal to do with the behemoth of fanciful claims that is behavioral economics? Apparently nothing. Until that final chapter abruptly ended, I was waiting for the attempt at a juicy takedown—all in vain. After almost forty pages of nudging units, Richard Thaler, how belief in homo economicus is silly, and numerous examples of successful(ish) nudge policies, the best we get is a confession that, like other hypes in a book about quick fixes, nudging is too small to achieve any large purpose its proponents may wield it for. Then again, Singal placed behavioral economics alongside quack science like power posing, extrasensory perception, and mumbo-jumbo psychology. He tied it, implicitly at least, with results that could never be replicated, that contained outright fraud, and were achieved with faulty methods. I should take the win. The paltry nudge criticism aside, the chapter conclusion still stands: “[Y]ou can't nudge your way out of policy problems.” It’s easy to walk away from books like these thinking that an entire (sub)field is garbage, that academia is forlorn, that all research is wrong. That’s not true, and these authors are always very careful to stress that that’s not the thesis they’re advancing. Rather, they’re on a quest to expel the misbehaving deviants and thereby increase the public’s belief in what’s left standing. What these books teach, embody even, is that skepticism is healthy, that there are many ways in which research and researchers can go wrong (intentionally and unintentionally), and that there are plenty more instances of media outlets or political pundits hyping, exaggerating, hijacking or misrepresenting an already weak or faulty finding. “Don't trust; verify,” goes a common adage in the bitcoin world. The rest of us should adopt the same mentality, especially when popular or clearly convenient research findings are broadcasted far and loud. Author: Joakim Book Joakim Book is an economics graduate of the University of Glasgow, and is currently a graduate student at the University of Oxford -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------