<화폐가 국가를 망가뜨릴 때 When Money Destroys Nations>는 짐바브웨의 과도한 인플레 정책과 그로 인한 초인플레이션, 그리고 짐바브웨 주민들의 대처, 그리고 집바브웨와 상황이 그리 다르지 않은 현재의 서방 세계에 대한 경고 등을 담은 책이다. (우리의 사정도 별반 다르지 않다) 아래는 아마존에서 갖고 온 독자의 서평이다.

 

 

When Money Destroys Nations

 

by Philip Haslam (Author), Russell Lamberti (Author)

 

 

By Gary Smith on June 8, 2015

 

 

I found this book very helpful. It was both a warning and an encouragement at the same time. It is a lesson in basic economics for lay people like me, as well as a call for common sense. I also have a new respect for the Zimbabwean people who are still struggling through the effects of appalling financial governance, and at the same time, I have a better understanding of what is happening globally right now.

The greatest risk the world faces at present is not nuclear warfare or environmental disaster as so many think right now. It is a financial meltdown on a global scale.

 

The authors’ state: “A worldwide government debt and currency crisis remains one of the largest of all global economic risks. It is certain that, if governments continue to pile up debts recklessly and to devalue their currency by printing money, a day of debt reckoning must come.” One just has to pay attention to much of the world news right now, and it’s easy to see this happening.

 

The Zimbabwean lesson, which comes from a very small economy (which at the time had very little effect on the world as a whole), becomes much more of an issue when one applies it to the huge economies of the world today. “Zimbabwe’s government consumed too much and became highly indebted, complacent and over-reliant on foreign funders, while at the same time increasing its money supply in the economy. The government developed an unsustainable spending habit and when the funding suddenly dried up, it was left with two options: either take the hard road and live within its means or bumble down a potholed inflation road leading to destruction.”

 

The authors state that “Since 2007, the UK and United States have become much more profligate – the United States government almost doubled its debt in the time period to 2013, and the UK government increased its debt by almost 2.5 times….. Like Zimbabwe, the industrialised countries are turning to money printing to revive their ailing economies. While the amounts of new money being printed are staggering, they have not yet been enough to spark runaway inflation. Nonetheless, these economies are adopting dangerous policies that history has shown are hard to reverse.”

 

Ever-increasing debt and no ability to ever repay it! We’re facing a similar problem in South Africa right now. All the signs are there.

But the book is not a doom-and-gloom chronicle. There was a lot that was encouraging too. In the midst of the most appalling conditions, ordinary Zimbabweans showed their resilience. What was of particular interest to me, as a Christian, was the way in which they overcame their problems - through community.

 

“There was only one way to survive hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, and that was in community. As formal supply chains broke down, an intricate network of community supply evolved throughout the country. Instead of purchasing goods in shops, you had to rely on relationships with people who had access to the food and personal services you needed. In this way, the community developed a bartering network that was practically impossible for the government to control or regulate. Many of those we interviewed described how deeply bonding this process was and still speak of it with fondness and nostalgia. In the midst of the darkness, there was tremendous positivity among the people. It was the bright moon in the night of economic collapse.

 

The deep value system shared across the cultures preserved the rule of law. Most Zimbabweans held Christian convictions that guided them to respect the rule of law, shunning personal aggression and respecting private property, basic social order and contracts. Business was done relationally rather than at arm’s length.”

 

Whether this will be possible in much of the secular western remains to be seen – but people, generally, are far more resilient than we often give ourselves credit for.

 

So, what we do about it? Well the authors do make a number of very practical personal suggestions, none of which I felt were ‘doomsday-ish’; but more importantly, their general observations were more helpful:

 

If deficit spending and money printing ruin economies, we should establish a system that removes the state’s ability to go into debt and to control and print money. What, then, are the best structures to facilitate a sound and just money system?

 

We strongly advocate that as a foundation, people must have freedom to choose whatever money they wish to use in trade. The only standard needs to be one of justice. If an organisation says that the money it issues has a certain backing, such as oil or gold, it must actually have that backing.

 

The money must be what it says it is. At its basic root, this is about trading honestly. The underlying cause of hyperinflation is excessive government spending that precedes money printing. Governments should therefore have strict constitutional limitations on their ability to tax, spend and borrow. The lessons from Zimbabwe’s struggles are clear. When nations enact irresponsible economic policies and then print money to fix their problems, the inevitable result is economic ruin. This pattern has been repeated over and over in history, always with the same results.

 

Voter activism can certainly play a role, but one wonders if the problems aren’t so deeply entrenched and all-pervading that even new governments will have to ‘fit in’? The authors certainly leave one with this impression, yet there is still the encouragement to do one’s bit! I can cut my own spending and reduce my own debt. I can look at ways to be less reliant on government and municipal structures and services. I can learn to grow more of my own food, and more. But ultimately, as a Christian, I know that my source is God. Not my savings; not my pension fund; not my business – and certainly not the social welfare system.

 

I think the book should be required reading for all government ministers, especially those in charge of the finances; for all leaders in business, and in fact, for all those involved in community leadership of any kind.

 

 

 

 

 

아래 글은 저자들이 밝힌 초인플레의 과정

 

In South Africa, there's a river called Suicide Gorge where you can jump off from the top of a series of waterfalls. You jump off each waterfall, and you can then go down to the next. But the problem is, once you jump off each waterfall, you can’t get back up again. So we used this analogy to describe the process of hyperinflation.

 

Typically, as a government prints money, you get levels of inflation. But that’s inflation based on historic money printing. Every year, when you get your salary increase, you base it on historic processes. You take the latest consumer price index and then build it into your wage increases. If you're a business, you'll build it into rent increases and price increases of your products. But it's all based on historic inflation.

 

But then the time comes when a cultural shift occurs and people begin to say "Hang on a second, my salary increase was based on historic inflation, but I'm beginning to lose purchasing power -- I'm getting poorer and poorer. Stop giving me increases based on last year, and give me increases based on next year." So the inflation becomes based on a future money printing, rather than historic money printing. That's what we call our first 'gorge moment'.

 

That leads very quickly then into our second gorge moment, which is where the rate of price increases actually outstrips the amount of money in the economy and you get money shortages. In 2003, the economy in Zimbabwe experiences fierce money shortages. You had massive queues at the banks, real shortages, everyone trying to take their money out of the banking system. It became a real problem as people began to distrust the banks more and more. They actually wanted to hold their money directly, concerned that the banks actually did not have it.

 

Gorge moment three is when that pressure begins to work its way into the real economy and margins begin to decrease to the point where stores begin to close. That is a real cultural shift. Before, stores were open; goods were expensive but you could still get food and you could still get goods and services. But at gorge moment three, the formal supply sector shuts down.

 

Gorge moment four is when the banking system begin to stop lending. If you are lending money to someone and, a day later, that money you lent has lost value, you no longer want to make loans. You're going to use that money to go speculating and buy things that will hold value. So gorge moment four is very close to gorge moment three. Stores close and credit dries up. People stop lending.

 

Following this stage is gorge moment five: a curious consumption hysteria develops that we call 'scorched money'. It's when people try to take their money and get rid of it as fast as they can because if you hold it instead, it's going to lose value by the next day and you can buy less and less with it as time goes on. People will do anything to get rid of their money and find anything that will hold some value of some sort. It’s a crazy, consumption hysteria where everyone’s buying everything. There is huge amount of demand, but in reality, production has stopped. So you have this entire consumption of the economy where all goods and services get consumed.

 

Finally comes the sixth gorge moment which is the death of the currency and the final collapse of the money-based system.

   (Peak Prosperity.com에서)